Go Avocado vs North Dakota (Arnie’s house, March 6 2011)

Background: These two teams are the pre-season favorites (tying in the pre-season poll) and appropriately are tied for first at the end of November. The teams are still neck and neck at New Year’s, but they have dropped back to 2nd and 3rd behind Harold. North Dakota goes 8-4 in January to take over first place, nosing ahead of Eric (9-7 for the month). Eric’s huge 5-game sweep over Randy in mid-February brings him the first place crown, while Arnie ends up in a flat-footed tie with Harold for 3rd place.

Arnie prays he can win the coin flip and avoid playing Eric in the post-season as Eric has seemingly possessed supernatural karma-summoning abilities in the post-season when playing Arnie:

History of Arnie vs. Eric in the postseason:

Eric had won 5 straight post-season appearances vs. ND before this, going back to '85, and had won 16 of the last 21 post-season games played between the two teams since 1990. Arnie loses the coin flip to Harold. Despite splitting the season series with Eric, Arnie knows he is doomed.

Game 1: After the opening ceremonies, which left both managers with a really nice buzz, Lincecum and Johnson squared off. The Go's got off to a quick start, with Zimmerman hitting a two-run blast (the first 2 of his 11 rbi's for the series) for a 3-0 lead. Nelson Cruz brought North Dakota back with homers in the 4th and 6th to knot the game at 3. but with 2 on and 2 out in the bottom of the 7th Adrian Gonzalez came to the plate just as Robin came in from the family room to tell Arnie about the Sox exhibition game, which seemed to rattle both Arnie and Johnson, because Johnson grooved a fast ball right down the middle of plate, which Gonzalez deposited in the right field stands for a 6-3 lead, which ended up being the final score. Lincecum went the distance, giving up 6 hits, 2 walks and fanning 11.

Go Avocado 6 North Dakota 3

Game 2: Manny Ramirez got the Go's off to a fast start with solo shots in the 1st and 3rd innings. Hanley Ramirez tried to make it a game with a solo shot of his own in the 4th, but then the Go's turned it on, scoring 2 runs in the 4th and 3 more in the 5th, and by the time Reynolds hit a solo shot in the top of the 9th off Verlander, it was 9-3 Go's and North Dakota was heading home down 2 games to none. Verlander went the distance, allowing just 4 hits, 1 walk and 12 k's.

Go Avocado 9 North Dakota 3

Game 3: The critical game for North Dakota got off badly as Zimmerman crushed a 3-run blast in the 1st, and the Go's never looked back. Weaver baffled North Dakota batters for 5 innings, surrendering no runs before giving way to 4 relievers, who went the final 4 innings to complete the shutout. The Go's broke it open in the 7th with 6 runs.

Go Avocado 11 North Dakota 0

Game 4: A rematch of game 1 once again started off poorly for North Dakota, as Johnson surrendered solo shots to Fielder and Gonzalez, and then a 3-run bomb from Werth in the 4th, and North Dakota was quickly down 5-0. But they scratched back with 3 of their own in the bottom of the 4th and a single run in the 6th to make it 5-4. But the Go's put it away in the 7th with Zimmerman hitting a 2-run single to make it 7-4. Neither team scored again. Lincecum got his 2nd win, with a save from Soriano.

Go Avocado 7 North Dakota 4

Go Avocado wins series 4 games to 0

For the series Zimmerman went 7 for 17, with 2 homers and 11 rbi's. Gonzalez went 8 for 16, with 3 homers and 9 rbi's, to share MVP honors. It was a tough series for North Dakota's league MVP, Albert Pujols, who was held to just 3 singles, no homers and no rbi's.

Updated stats: Eric has now won 6 straight post-season appearances vs. ND, going back to '85, and has won 20 of the last 25 post-season games played between the two teams since 1990.

Background: The league does its homework well as Jed (3rd in the pre-season poll) and Harold (4th) round out the playoffs. Jed stumbles out of the gate, opening up at 5-7, while New Orleans is marginally better at 4-4. But Harold goes on a 16-4 December tear (including an 8-0 sweep of Jeff and Eric at the bash) to open up a big lead at the holiday break. Jed is still bumbling around (12-12) but only a game out of 4th. Harold falls to earth in January (3-9) and drops back to 3rd, while Jed ((10-6) creeps into 4th. Jed finishes strong, though (11-5), including a sweep of Tom on the last weekend of the season that helps him snag 2nd place. Harold’s 9-7 earns him a tie with North Dakota at 32-24 and with the season series split between them, it comes down to a long-distance coin flip (but not even over the phone! ‘I trust you’ says Harold). He wins the coin flip and takes 3rd place.

Neither Harold nor Jed kept the scoresheets, so they lazily agreed to use the computer’s write-up of the games:

Game 1

At Pufferfish Pond, the Fugakyu fans witnessed a great pitchers’ duel. Felix Hernandez(1-0) finally bested his New Orleans opposite, Chris Carpenter(0-1), by the score of 2 to 1.

Hernandez got relief help from Jeremy Affeldt who gained credit for his 1^st save. Carpenter took the loss. He gave up 11 hits and no walks in 5 and 2/3 innings.

Game 2

49,514 fans were treated to a fine game at Pufferfish Pond as only one run separated the combatants at game's end. The Fugakyu Pufferfish won by the slimmest of margins, 3 to 2.

Scott Feldman(1-0) got the win allowing no runs in 2 innings. Hiroki Kuroda(0-1) was given the loss in relief. He gave up 1 run and 1 hit in 2 and 1/3 innings.

Game 3

In a close game the New Orleans Ellis got by the Fugakyu Pufferfish by the score of 4 to 2 to cut the series lead to 2 games to 1. Alfredo Aceves(1-0) was solid in relief, and he got credit for the win. He surrendered only 1 hit and no walks in 1 and 2/3 innings. The pitchers took over after the 4th inning as neither team was able to score again.

Mariano Rivera earned his 1st save. John Lackey(0-1) absorbed the loss. He was hit hard (another case of Strat-O imitating real life) and gave up 7 hits and 2 walks in 4 innings.

Game 4

Gavin Floyd(0-1) was the losing pitcher. He was hit hard and gave up 15 hits and 3 walks in 9 innings.

Game 5

Game 6

Mariano Rivera recorded his 2nd save. Joakim Soria(0-1) was charged with the loss in relief. He was pinned with the loss despite not allowing an earned run in his 2 innings of work.

Game 7

Adam Jones cracked a homer and had 3 RBI as the New Orleans Ellis defeated the Fugakyu Pufferfish 8 to 4 at Pufferfish Pond to win the series 4 games to 3

The victory was credited to Jason Frasor(2-0) who went 1 inning, allowing no runs. Felix Hernandez(2-1) took the loss. He allowed a few too many baserunners giving up 8 hits and 2 walks in 4 innings.

New Orleans wins series 4 games to 3

World Series

Go Avocado vs New Orleans (March 12, 2011 at Harold's [both wanted to make the long drive to the others' house and so they rolled to see who would have to host. Harold lost])

Background:

It is the first post-season meeting between Eric and Harold in 20 years, and only the second such meeting ever. Back in the ‘90-91 season, Ross's Raiders d. Golgonooza 4 games to 2 in the first round of the playoffs. Harold won 5 of 8 games against Eric in this year’s regular season.

Greatest series ever played? Could be. And Harold says he would have thought so even if he had lost 4 extra inning games (as Eric did). No team won two in a row. Ninth inning heroics. The greatest closer in the game blowing a game with two outs. The 1 rating catcher booting one. The recap…

Game 1: New Orleans 3 Go Avocado 2 (13 innings)

Lincecum against Carpenter in the bandbox that is Go Avocado. We let Tim smoke with the two managers, and he came out strong, allowing no runs through the first six with 10 K’s. GA jump out to the early lead on a two-run HR by Drew in the third. But Zobrist, who was a thorn in the side of GA all series hits a 2-run shot off Tim in the seventh to tie the game. After that, the deep bullpens take over. NO threatened in the ninth - getting the first two runners on, but a DP erased the threat. In the twelfth, Zimmerman leads off with a double for the home team, and after a strikeout, Tulo walked, making it first and second, and one out. The NO manager decided to bring in the great Rivera on the road, and he comes through, punching out Utley and Crawford to end the inning. In the top of the thirteenth, Helton (another thorn in the side of GA), leads off with a single, and is sac’ed to second by Diaz. After another out, the GA manager decides to walk Zobrist, making it first and third, two outs for Adam Jones, the former GA prospect. Jones comes through with a sharp single to score Helton with what would be the winning run. The great Rivera pitches a 1-2-3 thirteenth for the win, with Dempster taking the loss.

Game 2: Go Avocado 8 New Orleans 7 (12 innings)

Verlander vs. Floyd in game two. GA gets off to the early lead with a Fielder solo HR in the first. They add another in the second on Utley’s single and Molina’s double. But the NO bats explode for 5 runs in the fourth on two singles, two doubles and Zobrist’s two-run HR. But GA keeps picking away; a Drew solo shot in the bottom of the fourth makes it 5-3. Fielder’s second of the game makes it 5-4 in the fifth. Both teams match runs in the sixth, and NO gets a huge insurance run in the ninth making it 7-5 NO, going into the bottom of the ninth. The NO manager is thinking, “holy shit, I’m three outs away from taking the first two games on the road.” The great Rivera gets Fielder to K, and Zimmerman to ground out. The NO manager is thinking, “holy shit, I’m one out away from taking the first two games on the road.” Then…Gonzalez walks and Tulo hits a two-out HR to tie the game against the great Rivera. It stays tied until the twelfth. After the first out, NO get two runners on, but Bettencourt shuts the door. In the bottom of the 12, NO has Kuroda, their 9th pitcher in the game and GA takes advantage. A double by Gonzo, single by Tulo, and then a two-out hit by Drew brings home Gonzo with the winning run. Series tied as they move to New Orleans.

Game 3: New Orleans 10 Go Avocado 3

Lily against Weaver as the series shifts to the spacious Doc Ellis Stadium in New Orleans. And, it’s all NO, in a 10-3 win. A 2-run HR by Suzuki in the first, and a 2-run HR by Figgins in the fifth causes the only managerial outburst of the day, with Eric saying “I can’t believe your pussy hitters are hitting home runs.” A somewhat pussy hitter Cano hits a three-run shot in the eight to break it open. Lilly with the win and Aceves with two strong innings of relief.

Game 4: Go Avocado 5 New Orleans 1

Happ vs. Lincecum, and it’s all Tim and GA, with a 5 – 1 win. Timmy sparkled, pitching a complete game 6-hitter, with the only run being a Cano HR in the ninth. NO only have four runners reach second base. GA scored a run in the first, two in the forth, a single run in the fifth, with Zimmy hitting a solo shot in the ninth. Series 2 -2 after 4.

Game 5: New Orleans 3 Go Avocado 2 (11 innings)

The pivotal game, with Verlander taking on Floyd in the final game in NO. GA jump out to the early lead 2-0 on back to back walks to Gonzo and Tulo and an Utley single to advance them. Floyd bears down, but GA get two on a fielder’s choice and sac fly. NO ties the game in the fifth on a 2 run single by Suzuki. Then, the bullpens take over again. The NO pen retires 17 of 18, and GA matches them. Then, the bottom of the eleventh. Helton leads off with a catcher X roll, and amazingly, Molina boots it. Ross walks and then Zobrist attempts a sac – and is safe on a speed chance. Based loaded. Wertz is brought in to face Cano, and walks him, to walk in the winning run. NO up 3 - 2.

Game 6: Go Avocado 4 New Orleans 1

The NO manager is thinking, pitch Carpenter in game 6 or save him for a game 7??? Knowing that Timmy would be ready to go in a game 7 for GA… NO decides to go all in, and pitches Carpenter in game 6. NO jumps out to an early lead on Bartlett’s first inning HR, but GA takes the lead in the third on two walks, a double by Fielder and fielder’s choice by Gonzo. They break it open with solo shots by Manny and Zimmy in the fifth. NO cannot solve the GA bullpen, as they record strikeouts for 10 of their 15 outs from the fifth inning on. Series tied, 3-3.

Game 7: New Orleans 8 Go Avocado 5 (14 innings)

Lily against Timmy. And Tim starts out strong, K’ing 4 of the first 6 batters. GA takes the lead in the bottom of the second 2-0 on solo shots by Fielder and Gonzo, both 5-5 roles on Lily’s card. Dunn ties it with a two run poke in the top of the fifth. NO takes the lead 3-2 in the top of the sixth, and the NO manager is lining up his bullpen. But GA strike quickly in the bottom half, with a Tulo three run blast, giving them a 5-3 lead. NO scratch out a run in the eighth on Napoli’s RBI single. 5-4, top of 9. GA brings in their best reliever this year, Wertz, to face Zobrist. And the first round draft pick last year smacks a BPHR to tie the game 5-5. In the tenth, GA gets runners on 1st and 2nd with one out, but can’t push home the run. NO get runners on 1st and 3rd with two outs in the twelfth, and can’t get the run home. NO needs to bring in a tired Happ in the tenth, and a tired Floyd in the twelfth – there is no one left. Top of 14, after one out, Johnson walks, which he has done all series, and Wright pinch runs. Stolen base, Wright to second. Bartlett singles, moving Wright to third. Bartlett goes for the good lead, gets it and steals second, 2nd and 3rd, none out. Suzuki hits a long single to score two, and Cano singles home another to give NO a three-run lead going to the bottom of the 14^th. And miraculously, a tired Floyd shuts the door, giving New Orleans the championship.

New Orleans wins series 4 – 3.

THOUGHTS WHILE CONTEMPLATING HIP RESURFACING SURGERY

Minutes of Annual Meeting and Draft March 27, 2011

1. Dues. Jed still owes me $7.00 (on top of the $6.80 from last year).

2. Awards Voting - 5 points for 1st place, 3 for 2nd place, 1 for 3rd place. Since managers cannot vote for their own players, 7 votes would normally be a unanimous vote.

MVP              1    2    3    Tot

Cy Young         1    2    3    Tot

3. Presentation of the Richman Cup by last year's champion, Eric, to this year's champion, Harold.

The presentation was uneventful.

    Rule change proposals

1. New Strat-O-Rule 27.65.

If a reliever pitches 2 or more innings above his relief fatigue rating then he must rest one day before his next appearance. If he pitches 3 or more innings above his relief fatigue rating then he must rest two days before his next appearance. If a relief pitcher is used without the proper amount of rest, consider him fatigued for the entire outing.

The new rule passed 7-1 (Harold was against it). Tom proposed an even harsher rule, but my notes about it are cryptic and it was voted down 6-2 anyway.

2. Eric proposed rolling for a rainout before every game, but this was scoffed at and not voted upon.

3. Then he proposed that a team could declare that they play in a dome and were thus immune to rainouts. This was voted down 4-4.

4. Eric then proposed that there be rainout rolls before games 1 and 3 of each series and this passed by s vote of 5-3!

Shockingly, that was a record for fewest rule change proposals.

            Card burning. After a brief discussion, Jed’s nomination of Nyjer Morgan, an all-around jerk, was approved and he was burned.Appropriately, a day or two later, he was referred to in the press as “the fiery Nyjer Morgan”.

Draft Notes

There was one trade made on draft day: Robin traded her 3^rd round pick to Jeff for Andre Ethier. With the pick, Jeff drafted Shawn Marcum.

Retread report:

• The very first player drafted who used to be in the league was the disgraced wife-beater Brett Myers, whom Jed drafted in the 2^nd round. Jeff had actually hung onto him for a few years so that no other team would be able to use him, before he finally cut him. Jed appeared to show no qualms or remorse.

• Next, Harold picked up former CN reliever, Joaquin Benoit, in the 2nd round.

• In the 3^rd round, Jed drafted former ND ne’er do well, Colby Lewis.

• In the 4th, Robin redrafted lefty reliever ‘O’Flaherty?’

• Former Bay City reliever Clay Hensley was taken by ND in the 4^th.

• Former ND infielder Omar Infante was scooped up by Jeff in the 5th.

• Randy redrafted reliever Madson in the 6^th round.

• Former CN infielder Mark Ellis was drafted by Future Wax in the 7th.

• Former ND OF Luke Scott was drafted by Randy in the 9^th round.

• Also in the 9^th round, former Wax closer JJ Putz was drafted by Harold.

• Arnie redrafted his former catcher Ramon Hernandez in the 10th

• Eric redrafted Kyle Farnsworth in the 12th.

• With the Spooneybarger pick in the draft, Harold picked up Andruw Jones, who had tours with a few teams. (Jones was subsequently cut by Harold in the waiver draft and then reclaimed by Jed. In fact all of the players in the waiver draft were formerly with other teams, by definition. 6 players were taken in the waiver draft, which is posted online).

SUMMER STUDY NO. 1 – Salaries in the SOMBILLA

Who are the SOMBILLA’s large market teams? Who are the small market teams operating on a shoestring? Who are the big spenders and cheapskate owners? Should the SOMBILLA institute a salary cap?

I let the computer choose each team's 25-man roster. The computer's not perfect in that regard, making a few surprising selections from amongst each team's 45-man roster, but I figure it got at least 20 of the 25 people correct for each team. That’s good enough for me and this study without spending another week of my precious summer nitpicking each selection. Using the salary database available on the USA Today website, here are the results:

1. Constantinople. $191,209,780. No surprise here. Tom was the league’s 2^nd biggest spender in the last study three years ago with $174 million. Although we could call them the Yankees of the SOMBILLA, the amazing thing is that the Yankees payroll is actually higher ($202,689,028). Think about that. We have an all-star league, yet the Yankees payroll is higher than the SOMBILLA's highest team. (No, Harold, the Bosox payroll is actually only $161 million). The pressure will be on the high-priced CN players to perform this year. Number of millionaires: 21

Ten highest paid:

2. New Orleans. $187,971,750. No secret to the SOMBILLA’s last year’s championship. Harold bought it! Like Tom, he outspends all MLB teams except the Yankees. 9 of his players make $10,000,000 or more. Number of millionaires: 21

Ten highest paid:

3. Go Avocado. $165,576,684. Hmmm, Go Avocado vs. New Orleans in a 7-games World Series. Coincidence? I think not. Now we know the real secret to their successful seasons last year. He pays a lot for his starters (Lincecum, Dempster, Verlander, Weaver), and they respond well. Number of millionaires: 20

4. Fugakyu. $157,787,826. Another playoff team, another high payroll. His payroll is still higher than all MLB teams, other than the Yankees, Phillies and Red Sox. Number of millionaires: 21

Ten highest paid:

5. Bay City. $135,780,783. A big drop-off from the league’s big-market teams to the small market teams, led by Robin. All those coiffered tight uniform expenses cut into the amount her team can spend on player salaries. Number of millionaires: 16

Ten highest paid:

6. North Dakota. $135,541,162. Suspiciously similar payroll to Bay City for the league’s only owners who are married to each other. And as a small-market team, he has another excuse for blowing the playoff series to Eric. Number of millionaires: 21

7. Area 51 $131,421,738. Cheapskate Jeff had the highest payroll in the SOMBILLA just 3 years ago. Clearly something is afoot out there in New Mexico. Alien fans are not pleased. Number of millionaires: 19

Ten highest paid:

8. Future Wax $123,276,248. How the mighty have fallen. You’d think with 3 owners, these cheapskates could scrounge up some more dough to help the cause, but no, the Pirates of the SOMBILLA just don’t care anymore. This franchise is an embarrassment. Does Randy think we won't notice how they pocket ticket receipts? Number of millionaires: 16

Ten highest paid:

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SUMMER STUDY NO. 2 – CUT PLAYER ANALYSIS

Everyone in the league agonizes over their final cuts and then inevitably laments their poor decisions, when guys they have cut go on to have great seasons. So, this summer, I decided to take a closer look at this phenomenon and answer the pressing questions of who is the worst ‘cutter’ in the league and who makes the best cutlist decisions.

I examined cuts from the last 15 years, going all the way back to the 1997 draft. At first, I thought about taking all the players each team had cut who had become redrafted and put all their ‘redrafted’ cards onto a computer Strat-O team. The goal of that league would be to come in last of course, to show that you were the most adept at cutting players, since the players you cut subsequently sucked more than anyone else’s players who’d been cut.

But I realized that it would be impossible to field enough players on a team (see below) who’d been cut and then redrafted by another team. I suppose I could’ve used all cut players, not just those who’d been redrafted, but that would have taken way too long.

So instead, I am just listing the players cut by each team in the past 15 years who have been redrafted by another team. (I also thought about compiling all the stats of those redrafted, but then decided I wanted a little bit more of the summer to myself).

So here are the lists. Note that any players who were cut and redrafted more than once appear on more than one team, so that each team can get ‘credit’ for screwing up. There is s second list of just those players redrafted by the same team that cut them:

1. Arnie. (29) – I guess I am the worst cutter in the league, because more players I’ve cut have been redrafted in the past 15 years than anyone else’s team. However, since this is my fucking study, I have decided to alter the conclusion, by rationalizing this by concluding that I’ve had more talent on my roster than anyone else over the past 15 years and therefore I can’t help but cut quality players who get picked up by others. Anyway, here they are:

S. Baker, Church, Infante, Kouzmanoff, C. Lewis, C. Pena, J. Rivera, D. Ross, R. Santiago, L. Scott, C. Snyder, Thornton, R. Belliard, Bradford, T. Clark, R. Winn, Eckstein, Bordick, J. Reed, M. Barrett, O. Cabrera, Conine, R. Sanchez, D’Amico, D. Wells, R. Cedeno, C. Hayes, Naehring, D. Lewis

2. Jed (28) – In fairness, I think a few of these guys were actually contracted out of a job rather than just cut, so Jed should probably rank 4^th or 5^th: (And maybe he can blame Clint or Matt for some of these). But he can’t complain about being 2^nd too much, having cut Halladay.

Aurilia, T. Clark, Dempster, Grudzielanek, Zumaya, Radke, Loiaza, D. Ross, B. Giles, M. Ordonez, Carrasco, Howry, Ponson, O. Hernandez, K. Garcia, Schmidt, Halladay, M. Cordova, Leskanic, Higginson, Hollandsworth, A. Gonzalez, D. Lewis, Mayne, Tewksbury, McElroy, Espinoza, Deer

3. Robin (26) – I know she is shocked not to be first, but it’s still a fine, impressive list, and probably would have ‘won’ the computer league: Takes 3rd over Randy by virtue of more egregious cuts.

G. Anderson, Ankiel, Balfour, Breslow, O. Cabrera, Hensley, Ohman, Pineiro, Street, R. Tejada, J. Valentin, CJ Wilson, R Winn, Fucking Juan Uribe, M. Adams, Gross, Stairs, Acevedo, Embree, Vizcaino, K. Escobar, W. Gonzalez, J. Mesa, Surhoff, Grebeck, T. Goodwin

4. RAT (26) – Perhaps there is something to that roster talent hypothesis after all:

R. Castro, R. Durham, J. Guthrie, A. Jones, Saltalamachia, C. Zambrano, Bottalico, Mirabelli, L. Hernandez, B. Giles, Cormier, J. Tavarez, M. Williams, Wakefield, Nilsson, Embree, Velarde, T. Fernandez, M. Maddux, M. Stanton, Stottlemyre, R. Jefferson, Offerman, E. Davis, Radinsky, Becker

5. Jeff (21) – Can’t think of anything witty to say about Jeff, as usual:

Affeldt, Crede, R. Franklin, B. Myers, Olivo, Renteria, Wickman, Marrero, Glavine, Erstad, Eckstein, Cormier, Dye, Bordick, Randa, Holmes, Burnitz, P. Wilson, C. Guillen, Aguilera, Belinda

6. Harold (20) – Another fine computer team, just needs 5 more players:

Bradford, Branyan, T Jones, Percival, O. Vizquel, M. Alou, Leiter, Jenkins, Wunsch, Grace, Ochoa, L. Gonzalez, Lieber, G. Lloyd, Baldwin, Belcher, Guthrie, Trombley, MacFarlane, Valle

7. Tom (15) – Tom has cut very prudently over the years. It wouldn’t surprise me if he had a large wall-grid of all SOMBILLA players’ projections and stats, with arrows and graphs and stuff:

Ausmus, R. Belliard, Benoit, Ellis, Howry, J. Phelps, Politte, E. Santana, W. Alvarez. Timlin, Pavano, R. Durham, Clement, G. Anderson, M. Batista

8. Eric (6) – What the fuck?!! Jawdroppingly statistically significant. Has anyone else noticed that Eric consistently shows up as an outlier on my summer studies? He’s been the whitest team in the league, the oldest team in the league, had the fewest pitchers on a championship team, and was involved in the largest ‘who’s your daddy (vs Randy). He is clearly paranormal when it comes to the SOMBILLA:

Millwood, J. Wright, J. Valentin, Glavine, Clayton, Fassero

Next, here is a (much shorter) list of everyone who has been redrafted by the team that cut them

Pretty bunched other than Robin and Jed..

Two players appear on both lists – Tom Glavine and Royce Clayton were cut and redrafted by both the same team that cut them as well as another team entirely. And in the course of doing this study, I uncovered another record – only one player has actually played on four different SOMBILLA franchises - Mike Bordick. (Harold, J&C, Arnie and Dave).

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SUMMER STUDY NO. 3 – THE 2007 DRAFT

In what has now become a summer tradition, Tom Kinney presents his third annual 4-year retrospective draft analysis. (edited by Arnie & Robin)

……

It is time for the 4-year draft retrospective analysis of the 2007 draft. The first two rounds will as always be listed in detail with actual SOMBILLA Seasons (where possible) and a look at 2010 usability and some glance to the future. I may be a tad more wordy than Arnie has been in past years and he may of course edit all that out …

We have 4 SOMBILLA Seasons, but note that we have partial or no data for the following seasons:

• Future Wax did not submit stats for the 2008 season as his consecutive playoff streak was broken and he then decided to repeat not doing stats in 2010 SOMBILLA season.

• Eric reported for 2008 (48 games), 2007 (20 games), 2006 (0 games) and 2005 (48 games).

• Jeff reported for 2008 (52 games) and 2006 (16 games)

• Jed reported for 2007 (28 games) and 2005 (0 games).

• Harold reported for 2009 (40 games), 2007 (28 games) and 2005 (32 games).

As a result, some of these teams’ players may lose out in the counting statistics (Wins, Saves, HRs, RBIs, SBs) and be more maligned than they deserve.

Round 1: (Years are MLB years not SOMBILLA years -- T = Top Tier, U = Usable, F+ = Future Top Performer, FU = Future Usable)

Worst Pick: I never would have thought this on draft day, but Stephen Drew turns out to be the first round loser. He has never gained a foothold in the SOMBILLA and he blew out his ankle this year. He has never lived up to his hype and maybe he will come back and be an adequate shortstop but it does not look like he will be that powerful left-handed batting SS whom many drooled over.

Other: Jermaine Dye turned out to be a one-year wonder who flamed out of the league faster than was expected. Delmon Young as a first overall pick just escaped goat status by putting together a good year this year that leads hope to future usability. I do not think he will ever live up to the pre-trade hype.

Round 2:

Best Pick: I have to declare a tie between Jered Weaver and Ian Kinsler. Both are at the top of their positions and both look to have premium futures. Kinsler is in the same SOMBILLA ballpark as Hanley and has solidified his defense moving forward. Weaver has a bright future that makes up for his one SOMBILLA season. If Weaver had been picked at the end of the round and Kinsler at the top I might have given Weaver solo honors.

Worst Pick: Another tie between a 2^nd bagger and a pitcher. Freddie Sanchez has never lived up to his 2^nd round status (and of course, being on BC, is injury-prone). Joel Zumaya had the big arm, but his delivery just could not be repeated consistently without blowing out his arm.

Other: Josh Johnson has big-time stuff and could be a perennial Cy Young candidate if he could just stay healthy. Francisco Liriano has never lived up to his billing as the next Johan Santana. He has been inconsistent when healthy and his health is always a question.

Round 3:

Best Pick: A Gone is probably the only hitter that moving to San Diego was just the best thing that ever happened to him. He is now the heart of the Boston Red Sox order and a gold glove first basemen. He has been huge in real life and the SOMBILLA.

Worst Pick: I have to go with Cla Meredith who was used for 7 innings but took up a roster spot for 3 years. He edges out the toolsy Young, who still has Arnie enthralled with that hope for next year.

Other: Broxton has been a consistent power pitcher. His splits have sometimes limited his overall value, but sometimes having an extreme split can be exactly what is needed. He has fallen off and may never return to form. The fear we have with any reliever is that he is good for a handful of years and then nothing. Saito was surprisingly useful over this time period as well.

Round 4:

Best Pick: This round belongs to Dan Uggla as a second basemen with power. Too bad that he does not play a little better defense or produce a better OBP. He is having a rough year this year after being shipped to a new real life team. He has contributed two seasons and will be useful in this upcoming SOMBILLA year.

Worst Pick: In a round filled with short term players who played well in the SOMBILLA and Uggla, it comes down to Scott Proctor and Reed Johnson. Reed played a lot of seasons mostly defensively for Robin and had more value than his Slugging + OBP. (Robin adds “and because I just cut him, is batting over .300 [see summer study #2]) The much overused in real life Scott Proctor gets the nod because he just did not play enough or contribute enough to not get the worst pick nod.

Round 5:

Best Pick: Troy Tulowitzki gets the nod as the defensive wiz (1 SS) with power that if he can stay healthy will be one of the best SS in the set into the future. One thing to realize is that it does not hurt his SOMBILLA value as long as he has 350+ PA’s and may even have better cards for his lesser PA’s.

Worst Pick: Brandon League, who in real life has taken over as the Seattle closer this year, was a one-year wonder with only 5 IPs and not very good ones at that.

Other: Andre Ethier was traded for a high pick this year and has had more real life success than SOMBILLA success. He is someone who I always think will have better Strat success than he has had in the SOMBILLA. Cole Hammels has had his moments in Strat and real life (who can forget that dominant post season where he led the Phillies …) but he could just not compete with Tulo.

Round 6:

Best Pick: In the most mediocre round so far, we have to go with Scott Downs. He has had longevity going for him and has had some valuable years in real baseball. He has been a middling but useful end of the bullpen player in the SOMBILLA.

Worst Pick: I am going to go with Howie Kendrick and Adam LaRoche as two long-term teases who stayed with their teams but could never crack the lineups. Kendrick is finally having a good year this year in real life, but too little too late.

Other: David Ross is the favorite one-year back up catcher that I believe has resurfaced several times since this draft. I do not remember much of Josh Barfield – son of a major leaguer who played second but has not played it well enough to get into the SOMBILLA.

Round 7:

Best Pick: This is a fight between Matt Garza and Adam Wainwright. I have to tip my hat to Matt Garza. Before spring training I would have gone with Wainwright because he looked like he was going to break out as a perennial Cy Young candidate, #1 pitcher, etc. but then major surgery and you always have to put a question mark next to his name until you see him return to form. Matt Garza came into the spring traded and with the pundits questioning if he was over-rated. He went to hitter-friendly Chicago, but his strikeout rate is up and he looks to continue his SOMBILLA usability for years to come.

Worst Pick: Anthony Reyes is a player who looked like he might just turn out a year as a good pitcher but something always happened. He got his shots but just could not put it together.

Round 8:

Worst Pick: Gabe Gross and Kouzmanoff have never played for their SOMBILLA teams and you have to just toss a coin and choose which one is the worst pick. (Pierzynski did play but for some reason the database refuses to show his partial year .222 average …)

Other: Adam Lind who has resurrected his career asks for the tape on Kemp. “Has he even had enough PA’s to qualify for a Best Pick?!?”

Round 9-13:

Chad “Buzzsaw” Billingsley started well and is once again usable but his real life team has used him in mysterious ways allowing for his SOMBILLA owner to use him as a starter and reliever while being starred in the same year. The fantasy mavens have been disappointed and question his future (mostly because they had rated him as a potential #1 starter), but he has been a solid SOMBILLA contributor especially considering his round.

Kevin “Greek God of Walks” Youkilis has become a solid regular. His power was a question but he has grown into his stroke and worked hard at his defense to become a gold glove first baseman. He has made himself an above-average corner man and a starter for the declining Manatees.

Worst Pick: You really cannot make a bad pick in these rounds.

Other: A number of hitters were drafted in these rounds and have now found new teams via trade and waivers (re-drafts), as Adam Jones was traded to Harold and little Jamie Carroll was re-drafted this year. If you are Jed drafting in these rounds a hitter, then the Manatees will want him soon…. Willingham was drafted by the Manatees after he was cut and Youkilis was a trade target.

2006 Card Set Results:

Total Reported SOMBILLA Statistics:

Facts about the Draft: Jeff voted this draft as a bad draft since he only choose to draft 9 players, or he voted that he liked his team more than the draft. Robin only drafted 11 and everyone else drafted 12. Jeff was also most satisfied with the draft a year later when he only cut one player he had drafted in this draft (he had trade at least on Pat Neshek). It was a solid draft for contributing in the first year, and 34 of the players drafted were still owned (5 years later) at the time of this analysis versus the previous year’s draft, which had 20 players still owned 5 years later. The top prospecting rounds were particularly good, yielding 18 keepers (almost what was kept from the whole draft a year before) versus 8 keepers from the previous year’s draft.

Best Draft: This is the draft that put Eric on the slow path to dominance (he finished at the bottom of the pack the year after to snag Lincecum and almost nothing else for the future) that he is enjoying the last two years in the SOMBILLA. He drafted Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Proctor, Troy Tulowitzki, Scott Downs, Duaner Sanchez, A.J. Pierzynski, Ramon Ramirez, Alex Escobar, Adam Jones and Scott Olson. Someone still owns six of these players and the other five are carrying Eric to glory now.

Worst Draft: This was a hard choice, but Jed gets the nod. He went from best draft to worst draft in consecutive years. The only long-term keeper he snagged was Youk, and he traded him (and Hunter) for Beltre and Pena (and a pick who might have become Cory Wade in the 4^th). He drafted Jermaine Dye, Joel Zumaya, Bill Hall, Jeff Francis, Dave Ross, Carlos Villanueva, Wes Helms, Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll, Boof Bonser, Kevin Youkilis and John Maine.

HOW IS YOUR TEAM DOING?

Here is our first unscientific look ahead to the 2011 cards (due out in January).

THE 2011 SOMBILLA ESPN ALL-STAR COUNT

RAT (13) – Braun, Bruce, Hamels, Hamilton, Kemp, Kershaw, McCann, McCutchen, Quentin, Reyes, J. Upton, Valverde, Venters

Eric (11) – Fielder, A. Gonzalez, G. Gonzalez, C. Jones, Konerko, Lincecum, Molina, Tulowitzki, Verlander, Weaver, B. Wilson

Jed (10) – Bautista, Beckett, Beltre, F. Hernandez, Holliday, Price, Shields, Victorino, Votto, CJ Wilson

Arnie (10) – Beltran, H. Bell, S. Castro, Ellsbury, Joyce, Lee, Ortiz, C. Perez, Rolen, Wieters

Robin (10) – A. Cabrera, M. Cabrera, Ethier, Granderson, Halladay, Jeter, Jurrjens, Montero, Ogando, Sandoval

Tom (6) – Cain, Martin, Pence, A. Rodriguez, Sabathia, Youkilis

Jeff (4) – Avila, Lester, Phillips, Weeks

Harold (2) – Cano, Rivera

SOMBILLA Opening Day: Sunday, October 30!