THE SOMBILLA

Opening Day of The SOMBILLA’s 38^th season is Sunday, November 5^th at noon at the Bay City/Commissioner house,

------>>>>> Predictions <<<<<-------

Four league members submitted predictions. This year’s picks courtesy of the combined brainpower of Jed, Harold, Robin, and I. Thanks to all who participated.

“Looks like a season where there are 4 haves and 4 have nots. Seems to be quite a gap between them. Obviously, though, in a short season, there will be some surprises....

Randy (Future Wax) – My simulations had Future Wax getting .125 more wins over 162 games than North Dakota in an average park… Very strong rotation even with Kershaw limited. Defense not a strong suit (except at 3B)..Should look to upgrade a couple of positions like C and SS. Should be trading with Oceanus…Always a joy to play against… Kershaw is unbelievable, but limited. Still, you have Scherzer, Bumgarner and Sanchez as top-notch starters…In a first for the league, Randy plays a series during intermission in one of his plays while dressed as a pirate… No #1 position players but a #2 (Machado) and a couple of #3's (Braun, Turner)…Boring bullpen led by Dull… Adequate relief staff…This is your father’s Future Wax. Very tough against lefty pitchers… Bridesmaids, yet again.

2. Tom (Constantinople) – Jayson Werth—why can’t I get players like that? Mike Trout is the best player in the SOMBILLA .. Will torture the league, not by winning 40 games, but by submitting 40 incomprehensible rule change proposals... Has 3 or 4 2B better than any of mine. At least his pitchers’ holds are, for the most part, crappier than my crappy holds…Should be trading with Oceanus… An excellent team, despite what Tom will claim, but they get knocked out in the playoffs…Donaldson is the best at 3B. Harper (in an off year) is #2 in RF. Starting pitching is not at the level of the top 2 teams - Arrieta is barely a #1 in the SOMBILLA…Relief pitching is adequate…Dansby Swanson even cuter pick than Benintendi…Simulations put the Manatees pretty close to the top, but on paper they seem to be a notch below… Catcher needs to be upgraded. DH could be improved. …. Always a pleasure to play against…

Arnie (North Dakota) – Hope everyone has their elaborate, expensive Papi retirement gifts planned… Positionally, the best team. Lindor is the #1 SS. Betts is #1 in RF. Yelich is #1 in LF. Everyone else is up there (including Cruz at DH, who is #3 in RF). Now that CJ Wilson is out of the league, ND boasts the two cutest men in the SOMBILLA—Archer gets the nod over Andrew Miller due to the latter’s penchant for excessive facial hair. … Best defense in the league by far, combined with the best bullpen and excellent starters (among the top 3) makes this team the favorite… Stacked at 1B and C. Starting pitching pretty close to what FW has, especially with the addition of the mutant Hill… Always a delight to play against…After going 0-24, blows up the team again and then finishes 24-24 and finishes 5^th… Relief looks definitely better than FW… Impressive bullpen—probably the best in the league. It may have to do with the manager's old school style of relating to the cards, such as his freezing them when they underperform…So, on paper, a better team than FW. But somehow in second place in the simulations. Should be trading with Oceanus…

4. Jed (Oceanus) – Good D…Should be trading a lot - for the 2018-2019 season..This team does not excite me… Always a blast to play against… Some fun players like Votto (the #1 1B), Cano and Altuve (both 2B...).. The BC injury curse that cost Brantley this season (and much of next season) will strike Adam Eaton for next season. Two years of going for it have depleted Oceanus… Moustakas spared from missing the entire season only because of his relatively brief BC tenure…The Buffalo Bills of the SOMBILLA. Weak in the OF. Kluber is an ace. SP overall is maybe 3rd or 4th in the league. RP is the worst in the league. … …Installs spyware on his opponents computers to steal scouting materials.

5. Robin (Bay City) – Strong bullpen, which will be called on often to aid the mix-and-match (or cut-and-paste) (or sucky-and-injured) starting rotation. Yes, Bay City for the playoffs! Very good positionally, although an upgrade at 2B and DH would be helpful…..Receives a certified letter from the MLB Players Association imploring her to quit playing Strat-O so her draft picks can have injury-free careers.. Starting pitching is the real negative with this team… When Robin traded for Cole Hamels at the start of last season, little did she know he would become the ace of her starting staff (as well as her only uninjured/starred starter). Drafted Benintendi to boost team cuteness after cutting CJ Wilson…Always a hoot to play against…. Relief pitching is decent. Should be trading with Oceanus…The best of the also rans.

6. Eric (Smoking Loons) – Always a barrel of laughs to play against…Being picked for last will only serve to inspire Eric to yet another brilliant managerial performance… Hendricks and Verlander are excellent SP. Oh is a fantastic closer and the RP is solid. Should trade with Oceanus… With the notable exceptions of Xander and Thor, this is an unattractive team...Lemahieu has improved each year since having a rule named after him… Not sure this is a playoff team without Eric as its manager… Fucking Tanner Roark (at least he’s a +5 hold). …What a joke. The summer newsletter said it best “A distant last in payroll, this team is an embarrassment. The cheapest of cheap bastards, the owner spends way too much money on owner ‘amenities’ instead of on his loyal players. 13 major league clubs have higher payrolls than this deadbeat.”… It's not like there is no talent - LeMahieu is the best 2B in the SOMBILLA. Lucroy is a good catcher. Arenado is ok at 3B (especially in a small park). OF is weak.

7. Harold (New Orleans) – Douchebag Gary Sanchez is the #1 C, although very limited…Fucking Kenley Jansen (at least he’s a +7 hold)...Pitching not as good as usual…Will JBJ ever be anything more than a defensive replacement after this season?... Bryant is a stud at 3B and Diaz was a nice pickup at SS… The 19-man relief staff is led by Jansen, who is the best RP in the SOMBILLA, much to the chagrin of Bay City fans…Cespedes and Bradley are both #2 in LF and CF, respectively. But some holes at 1B, 2B and RF. The best of the "have nots," but a ways to go to catch up with the "haves." Sale is an ace. Happ is good. Fernandez is adequate…Always fun to play against…Fields an all-Yankee starting lineup by crossing out the team name printed on his cards and writing in “Yankees”…The late Jose Fernandez goes out as a #2 starter (unlike the late Yordano Ventura, who was on the BC taxi squad last season then was cut post-humously)…. Should be trading with Oceanus.

8. Jeff (“What Eric Said?”) – Enraged at being picked last again, finishes 7^th to spite the league…Always great times to play against…Yes, What Eric Said! Traditionally picked to finish last, this year WES is not the worst team on paper…This team has to be better than last year’s team… Positionally, weak at 2B and at all 3 OF positions. Porcello is a true ace. Otherwise, the starters are below average. RP looks to be better than average.. Apparently, me just wanting to draft Dahl was enough to cause him to be out for the season—still don’t get that draft day trade… They may be even better next year (although I am picking them for 8^th, so that wouldn’t take much) given the number of real-life World Series participants WES has… Should be trading with Oceanus.. Has improved to being only the 2^nd worst team in the league!

Voting summary

Votes were counted based on predicted postseason performance. So, someone who was chosen to win it all receives a first place vote, WS loser a 2^nd place vote, etc. Points equal 1 for 1st, 2 for 2nd, etc. The fewer points the better.

	1^st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	Total
Randy	2	2							6
Tom		1	3						11
Arnie	1	1	1		1				11
Jed	1			1	1		1		17
Robin				1	1		2		23
Eric				2				2	24
Harold					1	2		1	25
Jeff						2	1	1	27

Current all-time stats

Regular season				Post season
	W	L	Pct.		W	L	Pct
Randy Divinski	732	503	.593	Eric Robinson	92	71	.564
Jed Corman	660	543	.549	Tom Kinney	57	45	.559
Tom Kinney	582	481	.548	Jeff Donahue	25	25	.500
Arnie Pollinger	1060	952	.527	Jed Corman	64	66	.492
Harold Mellor	828	765	.520	Randy Divinski	86	91	.486
Eric Robinson	1023	970	.513	Harold Mellor	72	77	.483
Robin Perlow	844	1030	.450	Arnie Pollinger	74	86	.463
Jeff Donahue	529	667	.442	Robin Perlow	27	35	.435

Upcoming milestones this season:

· Tom needs 18 wins for 600

· Tom needs 19 losses for 500

· Eric needs 30 losses for 1000

· Robin celebrates the 35^th anniversary of her first, last & only World Series championship (officially ½ championship)

New league rules for 2017-2018:

· All teams now have off days after games 20, 28, and 40. They count for both injuries and relief (and unstarred starters who pitch no more than 5 innings in the series before the off day).

· Teams allowed to drop a hitter for a pitcher before each round of the playoffs (see bylaws for details).

· Do away with pro-ration/assignment of pitchers innings when calling up and sending down pitchers. Basically, treat them the way we treat limited batters. Pitchers used as the 26^th man/game 46 callup or called up for an injury are limited to the greater of:

· Series proration

· Starter point of weakness + 2 innings

· (Reliever point of weakness + 2) x 3 innings

These pitchers are still limited to 42*IP (or .5*IP for starred starters)

Starred starters

The official list of starred starters from Strat-O is included with this newsletter. Look for the “*” next to the pitcher’s name.

Pitchers’ running ratings
Included with this newsletter

Ballpark limits for the upcoming season:

· Max BP HR differential between L and R: 9 (Boston, Chicago NL)

· Max BP S differential between L and R: 7 (Milwaukee)

· Ballpark singles more than ballpark homers, maximum: 18 (Fenway)

· Ballpark homers more than ballpark singles, maximum: 16 (New Yuck (AL)

A reminder too that all teams, not just the teams opening at home, must announce their ballparks by Opening Night.

Old rules worth repeating. Please take a few minutes to read these.

1. Three-out rule. The three-out period to determine when a relief pitcher is tired, is a rolling 3-out period. That is, a reliever becomes weak after giving up 3 hits/walks during any consecutive three-out period after a pitcher’s point of weakness.

2. Reliever tiredness. If a reliever pitches 2 or more innings above his relief fatigue rating then he must rest one day before his next appearance. If he pitches 3 or more innings above his relief fatigue rating then he must rest two days before his next appearance. If a relief pitcher is used without the proper amount of rest, consider him fatigued for the entire outing.

3. Rainouts before games 1 and 3 of every series. Two dice are rolled. If snake eyes (a “2”) come up, there is a rainout. All pitchers get an extra day of rest (but no games actually postponed). The day-off/rainout rule also applies to injuries (counts as an injury day), and a one-game playoff, but not post-season (no rainouts in the post-season).

4. Days off. This not only helps relievers, but could also help an unstarred starter pitch > 5 innings in his last start before the day off.

5. Injuries after the 20th game roster freeze. You are allowed to adjust your roster for each series for injuries that carry through another series.

6. Hitters can pitch! To save innings, use the hitter’s pitching card found in the official rules.

7. Holding a runner on 1st - 1B AND 2B or SS have defense rating go up 1 (e.g. 4e10 becomes 5e10).

8. Holding a runner on 2nd - subtract 4 from 2nd rating; must get good lead.

9. Holding and baserunning. When a runner is held on first or second, subtract 1 from running rating. If NOT being held, add 1 to running rating. With runners on 1^st and 2^nd, the rule applies to runner on 1^st, who is considered held if the lead runner is held.

10. Trail runners on throw home = speed + arm - 5.

11. Trail runners on throw to 3rd = automatic.

12. Starter yanking - 4 innings or 3 runs.

13. Lo(max) - 1-7 TRIPLE PLAY; 8-20 double play, lead runner out.

14. Tagup from 2nd. On fly (rf) B only, a runner at second base may advance: Running speed +/- right fielder's arm, +2 for a throw to third base from right field. The only OUT chance is a roll of 20. If the roll is higher than the highest safe chance, but not 20, the runner holds. Example: A 1-14 runner and a -1 arm. Safe 1-15; Hold 16-19; Out 20. This rule does not apply to fly (rf)B? readings from cards or to F2 readings from the fielding chart.

15. Squeeze and corners or infield in. With the bases loaded and the corners or infield positioned in, downgrade the bunting rating two levels instead of one level (e.g. A bunter becomes C bunter) for squeeze plays.

16. Low fences. Whenever there is a Homerun/Flyout split (from the cards or the ballpark chart), if the last number in the homerun range or the first number in the flyout range is rolled then the outfielder's ability will be checked with another roll of the 20-sided die. Refer to the following chart to determine which outfielder has a chance for the catch:

Batter Bats	Last number in HR range	First number in Flyout range
Left-handed	Rightfielder	Centerfielder
Right-handed	Leftfielder	Centerfielder

For instance, if the homer range is 1-14 and you roll a 14 or a 15 on the 20-sided die then you must roll the 20-sided die again and refer to the following chart to determine the outcome:

Outfielder's Rating	Homerun	Flyout
1	1-3	4-20
2	1-7	8-20
3	1-11	12-20
4	1-15	16-20
5	1-19	20

17. Blocking the plate. Whenever there is a play at the plate the catcher’s blocking ability comes into play if the last number in the safe range or the first number in the out range is rolled (sometimes referred to in the SOMBILLA as a ‘disputed call’). For example, if the safe range (after all adjustments have been made) is 1-14 and you roll a 14 or 15 on the 20-sided die, then you must roll the 20-sided die again and refer to the following chart to determine if the runner is safe or out:

Catcher’s Rating Safe Out

1 1-2 3-20

2 1-6 7-20

3 1-10 11-20

4 1-14 15-20

5 1-18 19-20

18. When the bases are loaded and the infield is in, a gb()A results in a home to first double play. Other runners advance one base.

19. gb()A, gb()B, or gb()C hit to 1b or 3b with runner on 1^st, 1^st and 2^nd, or 2^nd only, and corners are in, refer to infield in on the charts (because the fielder is in).

20. The 26th man can be different for each of the last three series you are eligible to use 26 men.

21. Pitchers are not allowed to pinch-hit and can bat only when they are on the mound pitching in the game.

Past champions of the SOMBILLA

1979	Tsuan Li	Nazgul
1981-1982	Tsuan Li	Nazgul
1982-1983	Robin/Tsuan	Bay City Nazgul
1983-1984	Jed Corman	Evil Bunnies
1984-1985	Jed Corman	Shithead
1985-1986	Eric Robinson	Marakesh Express
1986-1987	Andrew/Tsuan	Future Wax
1987-1988	Andrew/Tsuan	Future Wax
1988-1989	Eric Robinson	Yoknapatawpha
1989-1990	Eric Robinson	Yoknapatawpha
1990-1991	Andrew/Tsuan	Future Wax
1991-1992	Andrew/Tsuan	Future Wax
1992-1993	Eric Robinson	Franz Josef Land
1993-1994	Andrew/Tsuan	Future Wax
1994-1995	Eric Robinson	The White Visitation
1995-1996	Arnie Pollinger	North Dakota
1996-1997	Eric Robinson	Finn's People
1997-1998	Randy/Andrew/Tsuan	Future Wax
1998-1999	Arnie Pollinger	North Dakota
1999-2000	Arnie Pollinger	North Dakota
2000-2001	Harold Mellor	New Orleans
2001-2002	Randy/Andrew/Tsuan	Future Wax
2002-2003	Jeff Donahue	Area 51
2003-2004	Eric Robinson	Gawd B
2004-2005	Tom Kinney	Constantinople
2005-2006	Tom Kinney	Constantinople
2006-2007	Tom Kinney	Constantinople
2007-2008	Randy/Andrew/Tsuan	Future Wax
2008-2009	Tom Kinney	Constantinople
2009-2010	Eric Robinson	Dem Bums
2010-2011	Harold Mellor	New Orleans
2011-2012	Eric Robinson	The Cheddarmen
2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017	Arnie Pollinger Arnie Pollinger Randy Divinski Jeff Donahue Tom Kinney	North Dakota North Dakota Future Wax “What Eric Said”? Constantinople