The (Donna) Summer Memorial Newsletter
VOL. XXVIII No. 2 August 2, 2012

---------------------------------------
Playoffs: North Dakota vs Bay City
Playoffs: The Dheddarmen vs. New Orleans
World Series: The Cheddarmen vs. Bay City

Minutes of Annual Meeting and Draft April 1, 2012

SUMMER STUDY NO. 1 – All-Star Study
SUMMER STUDY NO. 2 – BEST OF THE LAST 5 YEARS
SUMMER STUDY NO. 3 - The 2008 Draft
SUMMER STUDY NO. 4 - The Way we Were

2012 SOMBILLA All-star count
Ballparks


      Playoffs

      North Dakota vs. Bay City (at Holliston, March 4, 2012)

      Background: Chosen third in the pre-season poll, North Dakota starts out a lackluster 6-6 in November, and by 12/17 is floundering in 7th place at 10-14, and along with Fugakyu is the laughingstock of the league. A sweep over Area 51 puts ND back on an upward path and the team wins their next four series (3 of 4 each) to close January at 24-16, 2 games out of first. After Harold gets swept on 2/11, ND finds itself in first place, which they hang onto for good.

      Unheralded before the season (picked 6th) Bay City turned into the team that nobody wanted to play by the end of it. Like ND, they are 6-6 in November, and like ND, she swoons early with a 6-10 December to close the year in 7th place. A sweep over Randy on 1/21 puts her back at .500 and in 4th place. With 5 teams fighting for 4 playoff spots on the final night of the season, she sweeps Jed over the Internet, despite connectivity problems making Jed have to do all the managing (with direction) and mouse clicking for both teams.

      Bay City beat North Dakota 5-3 in the season series.

      Game 1: A jaw-dropping beatdown of epic proportions, Arnie considers calling in the police to report spousal abuse. Bay City bats around in 4 separate innings. M. Cabrera, 5 for 6, homer, 4 runs, 5 rbis. Torres scores 5 runs. Sanchez 5 for 7, 4 runs, hr, 6 rbis. Huff, 3 hits, 3 rbis. Posey, hr 2 rbis. It is the largest post-season wipeout ever.

                                             R H E

      Bay City     5 2 3   4 5 0   1 0 0   20 28 1
      North Dakota 0 0 0   0 0 1   0 0 1    2 10 0

      WP – Oswalt LP – Wainwright HR: M. Cab, Sanchez, Posey, BC

      Game 2: After Huff’s 2-run blast caps a 4-run first inning for Bay City, the ND fans are shell-shocked. BC takes a 5-2 lead into the 5th inning. Three hits for ND (C. Young, R Hernandez and Pedroia) make it a 5-4 game and Big Papi’s 2-run blast off Halladay gives ND its first lead of the series 6-5. But in the 8th, Huff does it again, smacking a 2-run homer off Mike Adams (lowest ERA on the ND staff in the regular season at 2.08) to take back the lead. Torres hits an insurance homer in the 9th and the Marmot sets down ND easily in the bottom of the 9th to win 8-6 and BC has a 2-0 series lead.

                                           R H E

      Bay City     4 0 0   1 0 0   0 2 1   8 12 0
      North Dakota 0 2 0   0 4 0   0 0 0   6 8  0

      WP – Halladay LP- Adams SV – Marmol HR: BC – Huff (2), Torres. ND – Joyce, Ortiz

      Game 3: In any sweep, game 3 is the pivotal game and this was no exception. Again, it was BC jumping in front, 3-0, again on Huff's 2-run homer. Posey threw out 2 ND runners trying to steal (lured by the +9 hold of Hanson), and ND left 12 on base as well. An rbi single by Pujols made it 3-1 in the 6th with nobody out and 2-on, but Ogando came in and got the next 3 batters. Posey's homer in the 7th made it 4-1. In the bottom of the 8th, ND loaded the bases with none out. But O'Day struck out Rolen and C. Young and the excellent BC bullpen usage backed ND into a bad matchup (Ramos against a righty) and inning over. ND still had 2 on with 2 out in the 9th, but again, a 'bench being empty' bad matchup means O'Day pitches to Rosales to end the game. Six BC pitchers combine to yield one run.

      One odd footnote to game 3 was that BC batted first despite being home. Neither manager noticed the error till the game was over. ND's feeble protests went unheeded. Even odder, luggage was not a factor.

                                            R H E

      Bay City     0 1 0   2 0 0   1 0 0   4 9  1
      North Dakota 0 0 0   0 0 1   0 0 0   1 11 0

      WP – Hanson LP – Wainwright SV – O’Day HR: BC – Huff, Posey

      Game 4: Proud North Dakota fought valiantly in game 4, scoring 4 runs in the top of the 1st (finally actually getting a chance to bat first). But Miguel Cabrera hit a grand slam in the bottom of the first (Robin was 7 for 8 on bp homers in the series) and ended up tiring out Latos by scoring 5. BC scored 4 more in the 3rd to make it 9-5. In the 6th inning, Thole's rbi double made it 9-6, but Ethier nails Rolen at the plate (18 rolled on a 1-16). H. Ramirez then hits a 2-run homer and it's 9-8. But Oswalt, still not tired, stays in and shuts the door until the 9th, when Saito and Kuo finish off the sweep.

                                           R H E

      North Dakota 4 0 1   0 0 3   0 0 0  8 11 1
      Bay City     5 0 4   0 0 0   0 0    9 11 1

      WP – Oswalt LP – Latos SV – Kuo HR: BC - M. Cabrera, ND – Cruz, H. Ramirez

      Bay City wins 4 games to 0

      For the series Huff was an incredible 12 for 16 (.750), 7 runs, 3 homers, 9 rbis, and 2 walks for good measure. North Dakota’s post season losing streak is now at 12 games.


      The Cheddarmen vs. New Orleans (at Holliston, March 4, 2011)

      Background: Harold (5-3) and Eric (6-2) both get off to good starts and are on top of the league by Thanksgiving. Harold blows through the league with a 14-6 December, with Eric in 2nd place, three games behind at the New Year. Was Harold’s team guilty of something extra, like overusing a player? He is 20-12 at the end of January, still in first place. Meanwhile, Eric tumbles out of contention with a disastrous 1-7 January and is 17-19 coming into the final month. But Eric sweeps Tom on the 17th to cap a 14-6 February to make the playoffs. But then. . . 

      New Orleans' Justin Morneau plunges the league into one of its biggest scandals ever, with lots of culpability to go around. A few days before the playoffs, Eric questioned whether Justin Morneau of NO was limited. Harold responded no, based on a confirming e-mail from Arnie back in October. Turns out neither Harold nor Arnie bothered to actually look at the bylaws, which clearly show that IBB are not added in separately to the BB on the card for purposes of the 350 plate appearance limit. The reason is that IBB are already counted in BB shown on the front of the player’s card. He had only 348 PA, but Harold had used him as unlimited for the season, finishing in 3rd place. What to do? Arnie and Robin (the other playoff teams) as well as Tom (league VP) were brought in. Arnie's feeling was it was a 'league error' with Harold relying in good faith on the Commissioner's response. Of course, Harold shares culpability. Others took a more hard-line approach (Ban Harold from the playoffs. Or drop him into 4th [Although Arnie was leery of playing Robin’s 4th place team, he most definitely did not like the karma of that idea, knowing that opting to play Harold instead of Robin because it wold be an ‘easier matchup’ would certainly backfire]). There was really no easy answer, although all other playoff teams endorsed Harold having the ability to make a roster move to call up another first baseman (which he would have done originally had he known Morneau was limited). In the end, after a flurry of e-mails, Harold decided not to take that option and basically had to play the post-season with a limited Morneau but no extra roster moves to account for the need of a backup 1B (he still had Swisher). We could have dragged the rest of the league in, we could have done a lot of things, but in the end, it was noted that the league has a long history of honest fuckups (Eric's ineligible Barrett WS game 6 [1990] squeeze, Arnie's 1989 Raines-gate just to name two, and we just played ahead). (A more formal system of answering rule questions from league members was discussed and decided upon at the draft – see below for meeting minutes.)

      So, on the table, Harold's strategy was to sit out Morneau in game 1 and save him for the rest of the series. This helped result in a 3-hit 4-0 shutout for Eric’s Verlander in game 1.

      Game 1















      NO

      0

      0

      0

      0

      0

      0

      0

      0

      0

      0

      0

      3

      1

      CM

      1

      1

      0

      0

      0

      0

      2

      0



      4

      5


      WP: Verlander 9IP 3H R 3BB 8K LP: Carpenter 8IP 5H 4R 2BB 4K

      HR: Werth (1); Soto (1)

      Weaver then pitched a 4-hit shutout for Eric in game 2 as he cruised 14-.0

      Game 2

               1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9  0    R    H    E
      NO    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0        0    4    0
      CM    0    0    0    0    3    1    6    4            14    16    1


      WP: Weaver 9IP 4H R 1BB 7K LP: Kuroda 8IP 16H 14R 1BB 9K

      HR: Zimmerman (1); Werth (2)

      In game 3 at NO, the game was close until Harold broke it open in the 8th and nickel and dimed his way to a 7-3 win. Eric says Harold "played like Harold."

      Game 3

                1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9       R    H    E
      CM    0    1    0    0    2    0    0    0    0        3    4    1
      NO    2    0    0    0    2    1    0    2              7    11   


      WP: Sanchez 5IP 1H 2R 1BB 6K LP: G. Gonzalez 4IP 3H 2R 2BB K

      SV: Rivera (1)

      HR: None HR: Soto (2)



      Harold tied up the series in game 4, a rematch of Carpenter vs. Verlander in game 1. Harold basically won with 3 unearned runs on Werth's error in the 4th to win 6-3.

      Game 4

               1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9        R    H    E
      CM    1    0    0    0    2    0    0    0    0        3    5    1
      NO    0    3    0    3    0    0    0    0              6    8    0


      WP: Carpenter 7.6IP 5H 3R 1BB 7K LP: Verlander 7.6IP 8H 3R 6BB 5K

      SV: Rivera (2)

      HR: Swisher (1) HR: None


      Game 5 was another blowout for Eric, similar to game 2. The highlight was Konerko's grand slam on a bp hr (1 for Harold's park). Final score 11-2.

      Game 5

                 1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9       R    H    E
      CM    1    0    4    4    0    0    0    2    0        11    13    0
      NO    0    0    0    0    2    0    0    0    0           2    3    1


      WP: Weaver 9IP 3H 2R 3BB 1K LP: Garland 2.3IP 8H 5R BB 1K

      HR: Tulowitzki (1); Konerko (1) HR: Swisher (2); Suzuki (1)



      Eric cruised in the finale, 5-1 to make it to the World Series for the 3rd consecutive year.

      Game 6

               1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9        R    H    E
      NO    0    0    0    0    1    0    0    0    0        1    4    1
      CM    2    0    1    1    0    0    0    1              5    7    0


      WP: Chacin 4IP H R 2BB 4K LP: Kuroda 3IP 4H 3R 1BB 2K

      SV: Wilson (1)

      HR: Konerko (2); A. Gonzalez (1) HR: A. Jackson (1)



      -------------------------

      Post-script: Harold needed to compile the stats for Morneau for the "legitimate" 145 plate appearances and the "tainted" plate appearances (which totaled 82). Background: Morneau became "used up" (i.e. 145 plate appearances) after his second plate appearance in game 33. So, everything from games 1 to 33 below are clean, games 33 to 56 are tainted:

      Morneau-gate












      ab

      h

      hr

      rbi

      bb/hbp

      avg.

      obp

      Team won/loss record



      Morneau games 1 to 33

      127

      32

      7

      2

      18

      .252

      .345

      2 -- 13



      Morneau games 33 to 56

      75

      14

      4

      1

      7

      .187

      .256

      1 -- 13














      TOTAL

      22

      46

      11

      3

      25

      .228

      .313



      Harold notes: "As you can see, the tainted Morneau actually played like shit, which I guess is justice in some way."


      World Series - The Cheddarmen vs. Bay City

        (March 11, 2012 at Plymouth)

        Background:

        It is only Robin’s second World Series as a solo manager since she split from Tsuan in the ‘83-84 season (her other appearance was in 28 losing to Future Wax in 6).

        Game 1

        Team    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9        R    H    E
        BC         0    1    0    0    0    2    0    0    0        3    8    1
        CM        0    0    0    0    1    0    0    2    2        5    12    0



        W: Weaver L: Oswalt HR: BC Huff (1) Ethier (1); CM Utley (1)

        Plymouth, Sunday, 12:30: Where do we begin our re-cap of Game 1? By her own admission, it was a game Robin said she should have won, and Eric agrees. For starters, she missed two ballpark homers early, one by Posey (1-14) and one by Torres (1-7), which would have put Eric in a huge hole. She did score the Series first run, a solo shot by Huff in the 2nd, and held a 3-1 lead heading into the bottom of the 8th, but that’s when the crazy shit starting happening. First, Oswalt nailed Werth in the ass leading off. Then he induced Crawford into an x-roll to Headley at 3rd, who juggled the ball for a hit and compounded his muff by firing the ball across the diamond about 1 feet over Aubrey Huff’s head, good for a two base error, scoring Werth and sending Crawford scampering around to 3rd base. After Oswalt struck out Konerko, Robin brought the corners in, but Zimmerman grounded to short, scoring Crawford and tying the game. In the top of the 9th Weaver got the first two batters, then retaliated Werth’s beaning by hitting Heisey off the numbers, which he followed by coughing up a double to Torres. Heisey zipped around 3rd with a 1-16 chance to score, but Bourn gunned him down at the plate on an 18 and Eric began to wonder if this might be his day. Sure enough, Walker hits a one-out double in the bottom of the 9th. Robin brings in O’Flaherty to face Bourn, and Eric sends up Utley to face the lefty, who makes his manager look brilliant by hitting the first pitch over the right field fence for the walk-off win.

        Game 2

        Team    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9      R    H    E
        BC        0    0    0    1    1    0    0    1    0        3    5    1
        CM       0    1    4    0    0    2    1    0              8    12    0


        W: Verlander L: Halladay HR: BC M. Cabrera 2(2); CM A. Gonzalez (1), Tulo (1), Soto (1)

        Robin sent Halladay out to even up the series against Verlander, but the workhorse just didn’t have it. He gave up a run in the 2nd and then allowed back-to-back dingers in the 3rd (Gonzalez, Tulo) for 4 more runs and it was pretty much a cakewalk from there. Robin scored solo runs in the 4th and 5th to cut the lead to 3, but Eric countered with a two-run shot by Soto in the 6th. Verlander was masterful (except against Miguel Cabrera, who blasted two solo shots), going the distance, walking none and striking out 13. Offensive star of the game went to Gonzalez, who was 4 for 4 with 4 ribbies.

        Game 3

        Team    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9        R    H    E
        CM        0    0    0    2    0    0    2    0    0        4    11    0
        BC         0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0        0    7    0


        W: Balfour L: Hanson HR: CM Gonzalez (2), Walker (1)

        Back against the wall but going home, Robin hoped to even up the series. She had reason to be hopeful, and Eric knew it: they had split the season series. And for the first few innings it was anybody’s game. But Eric broke open for 2 in the 4th on another dinger by Gonzalez, and added 2 more in the 7th with Walker hitting a solo shot. This was a seven-cheese shutout for the Cheddarmen. Chacin went the first four, then six relievers went the final 5. Robin had to be frustrated against Chacin, who allowed 8 base runners (4 hits, 4 walks) over his four innings but never gave up the clutch hit. For the game Robin stranded 13 runners.

        Game 4

        Team    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9    10    R    H    E
        CM        2    1    1    0    0    1    0    0    0    0     5    11    1
        BC         0    0    0    1    0    0    4    0    0    1     6    12    0


        W: Kuo L: Downs HR: BC Ethier (2), Al. Gonzalez (1)


        Game 5

        Down three games to none Robin had to win this one, and she did - in rather spectacular fashion. Eric sent Weaver to the mound to finish off Bay City, and for 6.6 innings it sure looked like it would be four and done. Eric burst out of the gate to take a 4- lead after three. After six it was 5-1. Weaver was in cruise control. Champagne was being brought to The Cheddarmen locker room. But with 2 out in the 7th and one man on, Weaver started counting his chickens. Little Freddy Sanchez hit a huge 2-out double after Robin (surprisingly to Eric) held up Posey from scoring on a 1-11 chance. But Freddy came through, and Ethier followed with a bomb off Wilson to right to tie the game. In the bottom of the 9th Cabrera missed a ball park homer (1-10) to win, but Kuo came in and shut down the Cheddarmen for 2 innings. In the bottom of the 1th Valencia hit a pinch-hit 2-out double. Torres followed with a fly ball X to Rajai Davis in left, who dropped the ball for a 2-base error, giving Robin a 6-5 walk-off win and a glimmer of life.

        Team    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9        R    H    E
        CM      0    0    0    0    0    2    0    4    0        6    9    0
        BC      0    0    0    0    1    0    0    0    0        1    5    0

        W: Verlander L: Halladay HR: BC Sanchez (1); CM Werth (1)

        Glimmer of life? For five innings in any case. Halladay was brilliant, giving up just one hit through five. Little Freddy Sanchez even gave Bay City a brief lead with a solo shot in the 5th. But The Cheddarmen came right back. Bourn led off the 6th with a single, and Werth followed with a majestic shot to left, and Verlander brought the cheese over the final four innings, giving up just one hit. The Cheddarmen salted it away in the 8th with four runs on 3 singles and 2 doubles. Verlander went the distance for his 2nd complete game of the series, walking 6 and striking out 10—sharing the MVP award with Adrian Gonzalez, who batted .45 with 2 homers and 7 ribbies.

        Final observations on a strange season and Robin’s tough luck. Eric was 8- vs. Tom in the regular season, and 23-25 against the rest of league. It was a season of splits. He owns Tom. As for Robin, Eric rolled at least six 2’s on groundball X’s to Robin’s shortstop and second baseman, both of whom are 2s. After a while it got to be a bit of joke. She also had no karma with the thingy, missing split after split; 2 came up time and time again. Eric counted his blessings. As far as he was concerned, next Sunday Robin could have won 4 of 5. He also realizes that no one gives a crap that he won. Even his fiancé was rooting for Robin.

        The Cheddarmen win series 4 games to 1.


Minutes of Annual Meeting and Draft April 1, 2012

1. Dues. I am proud to report that everyone in the league is paid up! (Not counting that cab ride in 1982 Tsuan still owes me for).

2. Awards Voting - 5 points for 1st place, 3 for 2nd place, 1 for 3rd place. Since managers cannot vote for their own players, 7 votes would be a unanimous vote. Thus, Votto is a unanimous choice for MVP!

MVP                                     1    2     3    Tot
Votto, FU                            7                   35
Konerko, CH                      1     3      1    15
M. Cabrera, BC                         3      3    12
Pujols, ND                                 1     2       5
C. Gonzalez, RA                       1               3
Bautista, FU                                      2      2

Cy Young         1  2  3 Tot
Weaver, CH       3  2  2 23
Verlander, CH    1  2  2 13
Rivera, NO       1  2    11
Hudson, CN       1  1  1  9
Cain, CN         1     2  7
W. Rodriguez, A51 1    1  6
Kershaw, FW         1     3

Interestingly, Verlander and Rivera also finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in last year’s Cy Young voting.

Manager of the Year  1   2   3    Tot
Robin                5   1        28
Eric                 2   3   1    20
Harold                   2   3     9
Arnie                    1   3     6

3. Presentation of the Richman Cup by last year's champion, Harold, to this year's champion, Eric.

Harold mentioned that he had ‘polished the cup,’ and Eric wanted to know if that was a euphemism.

  1. Rule change proposals
  1. Waiver draft.
  2. We agreed on the waiver-draft conference call timing and format (which was held 3 days after the regular draft).
  3. Policy for league questions.
  4. Morneau-gate brought to the forefront of league consciousness the myriad questions regarding league rules that Arnie gets asked during the course of the year – roster transactions, innings, in-game rules, all sorts of questions. We tackled this in three parts.

1. Limited vs. Unlimited. First, we addressed the Morneau issue at hand and developed the following rule: If AB + BB on the front of the player’s care are < 35, yet a manager believes that the player is unlimited, a confirmation from Tom (with a cc: to Arnie) must be made.

2. E-mail questions. All such e-mail questions (other than the category above) can still be asked, of course, but should be asked to both Tom and Arnie. (Questions not addressed to the both of us will be responded to by one of us cc:ing the other.)

3. Strat-O night, non-e-mail questions need to be answered by any two ‘qualified’ league managers (i.e., members of the SOMBILLA). If no third manager is available (because only two managers are present), the two managers will reach a temporary series agreement, then seek clarification afterward with a league-wide e-mail.

That was it for rule change proposals, although Randy did request that the "rolling 3-out" tired pitcher rule revelation be added to the list of most frequently misunderstood or forgotten Strat-O rules distributed at the beginning of each season. (For those with short memories, the rule is that the three-out period to determine when a relief pitcher is tired, is a rolling 3-out period. That is, a reliever becomes weak after giving up 3 hits/walks during any consecutive three-out period after a pitcher’s point of weakness).

Card burning. After a brief discussion about burning John Lackey, Bobby Jenks, and/or Ryan Braun, the consensus was to burn Manny Ramirez.

Draft notes:
No trades were made on draft day.

Retread report (the fewest retreads ever, although technically everyone drafted in the waiver draft is a retread)

Waiver draft recap: April 4, 212

Tom trades Kelly Johnson to Jed for Rafael Furcal.

Tom trades Coco Crisp to Eric for Chipper Jones.

Round 1

1. Jed drafted Prado, cut K. Suzuki

2. Tom drafted Smoak, cut Span

3. Harold drafted Hughes, cut Figgins

4. Arnie drafted Betemit, cut E. Jackson

5. Robin drafted Madson, cut K. Drabek

Rounds 2-6

Jed:

Drafts J. Santana, cuts Guthrie

Drafts Stauffer, cuts Capps

Drafts Dempster, cuts Pennington

Drafts Infante, cuts O dog

Drafts E Jackson, cuts I Stewart



THOUGHTS WHILE AQUA-JOGGING FOR HIP RESURFACING SURGERY RECOVERY

    1. SUMMER STUDY NO. 1 – All-Star Study

Every summer, almost as a footnote, the newsletter lists each team’s all-stars as an unscientific look ahead at how each manager’s Strat-O team is doing. I decided to take a more formal look at that all-star count this summer to, among other things, see if it can actually be called scientific at all.

First, some raw data. Going back to the first year of the contracted re-created 8-team league , we’ve had 11 all-star summers, beginning with 22. Over that time period here are the numbers of all-stars for each manager:


RAT

Arnie

Robin

Eric

Jed

Tom

Harold

Jeff

2012

11

8

7

10

8

8

9

3

2011

13

10

10

11

10

6

2

4

2010

9

10

8

12

10

9

6

11

2009

9

8

9

12

8

8

6

5

2008

11

6

4

9

8

8

6

6

2007

10

7

8

5

11

8

7

6

2006

10

7

9

7

7

7

8

6

2005

6

12

9

5

5

9

11

6

2004

8

10

9

3

4

7

5

10

2003

6

7

7

6

9

9

8

9

2002

5

12

9

9

6

5

8

6

Total

98

97

89

89

86

84

76

72

No wonder I wanted to do this study! What about a more recent look – say, the past 5 years (including this year):


Eric

RAT

Jed

Arnie

Tom

Robin

Jeff

Harold

2012

10

11

8

8

8

7

3

9

2011

11

13

10

10

6

10

4

2

2010

12

9

10

10

9

8

11

6

2009

12

9

8

8

8

9

5

6

2008

9

11

8

6

8

4

6

6

Total

54

53

44

42

39

38

29

29

Over the last 5 years, Eric leads the way with 54 all-stars, followed closely behind by RAT. And again, Jeff is last.

But does the number of all-stars really mean anything? Does it have any actual predictive value towards a team’s results the following season? I can think of three reasons why it might not:

  1. Players get chosen for the all-star game based on the first half performance. Many players tail off (or conversely have great second halves without being on the all-star team). While this likely evens out team by team, it would seemingly lower the predictive value of the number of all-stars toward a team’s success the following season.
  2. Not all the best players get chosen for the all-star game. Controversy and all that,
  3. The SOMBILLA team will still end up drafting players the following spring who will impact the team’s performance. To a lesser extent, trades can also factor in.

So, I took the 11 years worth of all-star data from the first table and paired each team’s number of all-stars with their team’s number of wins the following SOMBILLA season. Some correlation was obvious. RAT’s 11 all-stars in 28 helped lead the team to 39 wins in the ‘9-1 season. Eric’s 12 all-stars in 29 led him to 36 wins in ‘1-11. Conversely, Jed’s (and Matt’s) paltry 4 all-stars in 24 led them to only 14 wins in ‘5-6 (possibly causing Matt to flee the league). But how to explain Jed’s 37 wins the following year with only 5 all stars in 25? Or RAT’s 6 all-stars in 23 leading to 36 wins in ‘4-5? Is it all random or is there some correlation?

I lined up all 8 SOMBILLA seasons (1 seasons of 8 teams) worth of data and ran an excel correlation against the two variables. It turns out there is a correlation, albeit not very high. Based on actual data points (all stars between 4 and 12), one all-star is worth about one extra SOMBILLA win, on average, Yippee.


When you expand the table to extrapolate the data for numbers of all-stars below and above the actual data points, the correlation is even less, with 1 all-star representing about .65 wins:

Number of all-stars

Number of wins the following year

1

23.4

2

24.2

3

25.1

4

25.6

5

26.4

6

27.0

7

27.7

8

28.3

9

28.8

10

29.5

11

30.0

12

30.6

13

31.1

14

31.7

15

32.3

16

33.2

17

33.7

18

34.4

Note that the league record for most all-stars is 14, set by North Dakota back in 1997. In ‘98-99 ND won only 3 games but did go on to win the SOMBILLA World Series.

Finally here is the raw data so you can see for yourself how all team’s all-stars correlate to wins the following season:


RAT

AP

Robin

Eric

Jed

Tom

Harold

Jeff


All-stars

W

All-stars

W

All-stars

W

All-stars

W

All-stars

W

All-stars

W

All-stars

W

All-stars

W


















2012

11


8


7


10


8


8


9


3


2011

13


10


10


11


10


6


2


4


2010

9

24

10

32

8

30

12

31

10

26

9

26

6

30

11

25

2009

9

24

8

32

9

14

12

36

8

33

8

28

6

32

5

25

2008

11

39

6

20

4

19

9

34

8

32

8

28

6

23

6

29

2007

10

26

7

34

8

25

5

26

11

35

8

27

7

34

6

17

2006

10

37

7

24

9

26

7

23

7

23

7

39

8

24

6

28

2005

6

29

12

28

9

27

5

20

5

37

9

30

11

33

6

20

2004

8

32

10

31

9

32

3

35

4

14

7

32

5

27

10

22

2003

6

36

7

29

7

26

6

27

9

24

9

36

8

15

9

31

2002

5

30

12

31

9

18

9

35

6

23

5

31

8

28

6

28


87


89


82


79


78


76


67


69


There are no wins shown for the 211 or 212 all-stars because we haven’t played with those cards yet, silly.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMER STUDY NO. 2 – BEST OF THE LAST 5 YEARS

For the next study, I turned to the Strat-O computer. I took each franchise’s players over the past 5 SOMBILLA seasons and let the computer choose the best 25 players, with no duplicate players (i.e, there is only one Albert Pujols on ND’s team, not five of them). I let the computer decide which of the many duplicates were the best (based on the player’s computer draft position). But this study has a twist. I threw in the 2011 cards, that is, the upcoming SOMBILLA season, yet to be played. So the 5 MLB seasons are 27-211, featuring the last 4 SOMBILLA seasons, plus the upcoming one.

Because we are all focused on the upcoming season, here are the 211 cards represented:

Area 51 (Avila, Clippard, Romero, Bastardo, Hellickson)

Bay City (Granderson, A. Cabrera, Morrison, Weeks, Heisey, Halladay, Janson, O’Flaherty, CJ Wilson, Madson)

Constantinople (Kinsler, Santana, Pence, Cain, Holland, Casilla, Vogelsong)

Fugakyu (Beltre, Hardy, Bonafacio, Fister, Salas, Hanrahan, Shields)

Future Wax (Kemp, Reyes, S. Rodriguez, Upton, Kershaw, Venters, Axford, Hamels)

New Orleans (Napoli, Ad. Jones, Putz, C. Martinez)

North Dakota (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Wieters, Craig, Kimbrel, Lee, Adams, Cueto)

The Cheddarmen (Y. Molina, Verlander, Weaver, Motte)

A couple of observations.

  1. One would expect an even distribution of players from the five seasons. That is, the 2011 cards should have 1/5 of all the cards represented in the study, or 4 players (1/5 x 8 x 25). But there are 53 cards from the upcoming season (26.5%). Is 2011 the best set of cards from the last 5 years or is it a statistical anomaly with other variables in play?
  2. Just because Robin has the most 211 cards in the study, you can’t necessarily conclude that Robin will have the best team next year while Harold and Eric will have the worst. Eric has won the championship in 2 of the 4 seasons played, Harold has won once; presumably great players from those championship teams will also be in this league, making it ‘harder’ for one of their 2011 cards to break into the lineup.

So, what happened? Who has the best players over the past/present 5 years of the SOMBILLA? Using each team’s actual ballpark from the middle (‘09-10) season of the five, and a 168-game schedule, here are the final standings:


                        WON  LOST  PCT   GB
North Dakota NDK        110   67  .601   ----
Future Wax RAT           97   71  .577    4
The Cheddarmen CHE       91   77  .542   10
Constantinople CON       78   90  .464   23
Bay City BAY             77   91  .458   24
Area 51 A51              76   92  .452   25
Fugakyu FUG              76   92  .452   25

New Orleans NEW          76   92  .452   25

Now before everyone cries ‘fix’, might I point out that I have done all sorts of studies over the years, and ND hardly seems to win them all, if any. This is what happened; I am just reporting the results. Looks like there was a wild scramble for the final playoff spot, though.

No doubt some of these results can be attributed to the vagaries of ballparks chosen, whether appropriate or not. Yet, ND and FW had the best home record, while ND, CH and FW tied with the best road records. NO and A51 had the worst home records, while Bay City had the worst road record by far.

Only 3 players hit over .300:

----BATTING AVERAGE----

J.Hamilton (2010 card) RAT .322
M.Ordonez (2007) NDK       .317
M.Kemp (2011) RAT          .302
J.Reyes (2011) RAT         .295
H.Ramirez (2008) NDK       .291
A.Pujols (2009) NDK        .276
M.Teixeira (2008) A51      .275
P.Polanco (2007) FUG       .275
M.Cabrera (2010) BAY       .273
J.Ellsbury (2011) NDK      .272

Albert Pujols (29 card) had a good year against the SOMBILLA’s best pitchers over the last 5 years:

--------HOMERUNS------- -----RUNS BATTED IN----

A.Pujols (2009) NDK    53   A.Pujols (2009) NDK 118
P.Fielder (2009) CHE   48   M.Kemp (2011) RAT   111
J.Bautista (2010) FUG  45   P.Fielder (2009) CHE 104
C.Pena (2007) CON      45   C.Quentin (2008) RAT 102
M.Cabrera (2010) BAY   43   M.Ordonez (2007) NDK 100
M.Kemp (2011) RAT      41   A.Rodriguez (2007) CON 97
M.Reynolds (2009) NDK  40   D.Ortiz (2007) NDK 96
A.Rodriguez (2007) CON 35   C.Pena (2007) CON 95
B.Hawpe (2007) BAY     35   M.Cabrera (2010) BAY 95
C.Quentin (2008) RAT   32   J.Ellsbury (2011) NDK 94


Here are the MVP and all-star voting:

MVP AWARD

A.Pujols (2009) (NDK) 395
M.Kemp (2011) (RAT) 373
Z.Greinke (2009) (RAT) 22
J.Ellsbury (2011)(NDK) 13
P.Fielder (2009) (CHE) 97

 

ALL-STAR SELECTIONS BY POSITION

C B.McCann (2008) (RAT) 1,603,257
1B A.Pujols (2009) (NDK) 4,742,055
2B I.Kinsler (2011) (CON) 2,138,125
3B A.Rodriguez (2007)(CON) 2,212,185
SS H.Ramirez (2008) (NDK) 2,229,041
LF M.Holliday(2007) (FUG) 2,069,697
CF M.Kemp(2011) (RAT) 4,254,456
RF M.Ordonez (2007) (NDK) 2,651,348

 

Pitching:

----------WINS---------
Z.Greinke (2009) RAT    22-8
J.Peavy (2007) NDK      18-7
A.Wainwright (2010) NDK 18-8
C.Kershaw (2011) RAT   18-11
U.Jimenez (2010) RAT   17-11
J.Verlander (2011) CHE 15-9
C.Carpenter (2009) NEW 15-11
J.Shields (2011) FUG   15-13
T.Lilly (2009) NEW     14-12
C.Lee (2011) NDK        14-12


----------ERA----------
R.Harden (2008) RAT     2.66
C.Kershaw (2011) RAT    2.91
Z.Greinke (2009) RAT    2.96
C.Carpenter (2009) NEW  3.08
C.Sabathia (2008) CON   3.11
C.Buchholz (2010) A51   3.12
J.Peavy (2007) NDK      3.26
J.Verlander (2011) CHE  3.31
A.Wainwright (2010) NDK 3.33
T.Lilly (2009) NEW      3.49

---------SAVES--------
J.Soria (2008) FUG 41
J.Putz (2007) RAT 39
M.Rivera (2008) NEW 38
A.Bastardo (2011) A51 38
R.Soriano (2010) CHE 34
T.Hoffman (2009) NDK 33
G.Holland (2011) CON 33
H.Kuo (2010) BAY 33

<>

CY YOUNG AWARD
Z.Greinke(2009) (RAT) 133
J.Peavy (2007) (NDK) 87
J.Verlander(2011) (CHE) 43
A.Wainwright (2010) (NDK) 16
C.Kershaw(2011) (RAT) 8

Playoffs

North Dakota 4 Constantinople 2
Constantinople 4 North Dakota 1
North Dakota 7 Constantinople 1 (Peavy 5 hitter, 14 K’s )
Constantinople 4 North Dakota 1
North Dakota 5 Constantinople 4
North Dakota 7 Constantinople 6

North Dakota wins series 4 games to 2

(Cliff Lee 2-, Ortiz 2 HR, 5 RBI)


The Cheddarmen 10 Future Wax 5
Future Wax 5 The Cheddarmen 4
Future Wax 11 The Cheddarmen 5
Future Wax 9 The Cheddarmen 4
Future Wax 5 The Cheddarmen 3

Future Wax wins series 4 games to 1

(Ludwick .579, 4 homers, 8 rbi; Hamilton .4)

World Series – best cards over the last 5 years

North Dakota vs., Future Wax

Game 1: North Dakota 4 Future Wax 1

Win: Lee(1-0) Loss: Kershaw(0-1) Save: Hoffman(1st) Homeruns- M.Ordonez-2(2nd), M.Alou(1st)

Magglio Ordonez knocked 2 homeruns as the North Dakota ballclub defeated the Future Wax club by a score of 4 to 1. Future Wax never recovered after North Dakota took the lead in the bottom of the 4th inning scoring one runner. North Dakota banged out 8 hits on the afternoon. The victory went to Cliff Lee(1-0) who went 7 and 1/3 innings, allowing 1 run. Lee was helped out by Trevor Hoffman who recorded his 1st save. Clayton Kershaw(0-1) took the loss. Despite the loss, he struckout 13 North Dakota batters in 6 and 2/3 innings.

Game 2: Future Wax 5 North Dakota 2

Win: Greinke(1-0) Loss: Wainwright(0-1) Homeruns- M.Reynolds(1st), D.Pedroia(1st)

Brian McCann had 2 base hits and Zack Greinke pitched a complete game as the Future Wax ballclub defeated the North Dakota club by the score of 5 to 2. Greinke(1-0) delivered a fine performance for Future Wax. He allowed 5 hits and 6 walks in 9 innings and was touched for 2 homeruns. Future Wax had a total of 9 hits for the game. Adam Wainwright(-01) took the loss. He surrendered 3 runs and 4 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings.

Game 3: North Dakota 4 Future Wax 1

Win: Peavy(1-0) Loss:Jimenez(0-1) Save:Hoffman(2nd) Homeruns- D.Pedroia(2nd), J.Thome(1st)

In a good matchup it was the North Dakota team 4, the Future Wax ballclub 1. Jake Peavy(1-0) pitched a solid game. He went 7 innings allowing 5 hits and 2 walks. Peavy mowed down 9 Future Wax batters. North Dakota had a total of 8 hits for the game. Peavy got relief help from Trevor Hoffman who gained credit for his 2nd save. Ubaldo Jimenez(0-1) was the losing pitcher. He surrendered 4 runs and 7 hits in 7 and 1/3 innings.

Game 4: Future Wax 4 North Dakota 2

Win: Hamels(1-0) Loss: Johnson(0-1) Save:Putz(1st) Homeruns- J.Rollins(1st), J.Thome(2nd)

Ryan Braun had 3 base hits and the Future Wax ballclub beat the North Dakota club 4 to 2. Future Wax tallied 3 runs in the bottom of the 4th inning when they had 4 base hits. The key offensive moment was provided by Jose Reyes who electrified the ballpark when he doubled bringing home two baserunners. Future Wax out-hit North Dakota for the game, 9 hits to 4. Cole Hamels(1-) got credit for the victory, pitching 5 and 1/3 innings and allowing 1 run. Hamels was helped out by J.J. Putz who recorded his 1st save. Josh Johnson(0-1) suffered the loss.

Game 5: Future Wax 4 North Dakota 2

Win: Harden(1-0) Loss: Cueto(0-1) Save: Putz(2nd) Homeruns- A.Pujols(1st), R.Braun(1st)

Rich Harden didn't allow a hit until the 7th inning as the Future Wax club bested the North Dakota team 4 to 2 at the [generic] ballpark. Ryan Braun helped send the fans home happy. He doubled in the 3rd inning and hit a 'grand salami' to the delight of his teammates in the 4th inning. Future Wax had 1 hits for the game and North Dakota had 2. Harden(1-0) got credit for the victory, pitching 8 innings and allowing 2 runs. The right-handed Harden lost his chance for a no-hitter when Albert Pujols homered with nobody out in the 7th inning. J.J. Putz preserved the game for Harden, recording his 2nd save. Johnny Cueto(0-1) took the loss. He was knocked around by Future Wax, allowing 6 hits and 2 walks in 3 and 2/3 innings. Everyone seemed to enjoy the performance of Harden - except North Dakota. North Dakota's manager lamented, "He just was 'on' this afternoon. He was keeping our guys off balance all game. A fine game by a good strikeout pitcher - makes it a fun game for the hometown fans - unfortunately we were the visitors"!

Game 6: North Dakota 5 Future Wax 2

Win: Lee(2-0) Loss: Kershaw(0-2) Homeruns- M.Reynolds(2nd)

David Ortiz hit 2 doubles and Cliff Lee had a complete game at the ballpark where the North Dakota ballclub beat the Future Wax club by the score of 5 to 2. Lee(2-0) was very good in the win. He allowed only 7 hits and 4 walks in 9 innings. Neither team managed to score after the 4th inning. Clayton Kershaw(-2) was tagged with the loss. He was not very effective, surrendering 5 runs in 3 and 1/3 innings.

Game 7: Future Wax 13 North Dakota 7

Win: Putz(1-0) Loss: Aardsma(0-1) Homeruns- J.Hamilton(1st), A.Hill(1st), R.Braun(2nd), J.Ellsbury(1st), A.Pujols(2nd), D.Ortiz(1st), M.Ordonez(3rd), M.Alou(2nd)

Josh Hamilton hit one over the fence and had 4 RBI as the Future Wax ballclub staged a dramatic comeback over the North Dakota team by a score of 13 to 7. North Dakota was unable to overcome the big offensive rally by Future Wax in the 9th inning as they ripped North Dakota for 7 runs on 3 hits. The big moment was provided by Aaron Hill who deflated the mood of the partisan fans when he caught a hold of a bad pitch for a Grand Slam homerun. For the game Future Wax out-hit North Dakota 12 to 7. The victory went to J.J. Putz(1-0) who went 2 innings, allowing 3 runs. David Aardsma(0-1) was the losing pitcher in relief. He surrendered 2 runs in 2 innings and saw his ERA increase from 3. to 5.4.

Future Wax wins series 4 games to 3. Damn.

Series MVP: Ryan Braun (2007 card) .5 (11 for 22), 2 HR, 7 RBI



SUMMER STUDY NO. 3 – THE 2008 DRAFT

In what has now become a summer tradition, Tom Kinney presents his third annual 4-year retrospective draft analysis. (edited by Arnie & Robin):

It is time for the 4-year draft retrospective analysis of the 2007 Cards (2008 draft). As I am writing this it is late July (bleeding into early August) and I have had a very busy summer. We have 4 SOMBILLA seasons, but note that we have partial or no data for the following seasons:

As a result, some of these teams’ players may lose out in the counting statistics (Wins, Saves, HRs, RBIs, SBs) and be more maligned than they deserve.

Round 1:

1  Harold - Fausto Carmona

8-5,  0 SV, 3.81 ERA, 61 K (104 IPS)

Still Owned

2. Eric - Tim Lincecum

22-15,  0 SV, 4.38 ERA, 397 K (359.3 IPS)

Still Owned

3. Arnie - Josh Hamilton

.331 / .390 / .548 / .938 (546 PA), 30 HR, 85 RBI, 9 SB

Traded and Still Owned

4. Arnie - Magglio Ordonez

.280 / .340 / .420 / .76 (615 PA), 18 HR, 89 RBI, 2 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

5. Jeff - Alex Gordon

.417 / .462 / .538 / 1 (13 PA), 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB

Still Owned

6. Tom - Carlos Pena

.216 / .346 / .425 / .771 (581 PA), 40 HR, 96 RBI, 3 SB

Traded and Still Owned

7. Robin - Yovani Gallardo

5-7, 0 SV, 4.773 ERA, 107 K (103.7 IPS)

Still Owned

8. RAT - Ryan Braun

.288 / .316 / .586 / .902 (152 PA), 12 HR, 36 RBI, 1 SB

Still Owned

Best Pick: This was an exceptional first round. My prior version of this analysis went, "I am going to give the nod to Josh Hamilton by a hair as he has had several years of MVP play. In the SOMBILLA, an injury plagued year does not matter as long as the player gets 35 PA that are exceptional. One manager once opined that a player who is great for 350+ and then just does not have those ‘come back to earth’ months because he gets injured makes that player more valuable than the iron man who grinds out a full season for his MLB team. Tim Lincecum is a close second, but he lost out as he has looked particularly bad this (2012) season and some pundits think he might be looking at the end of his career. But he does have one more exceptional card for Eric to dominate the league with."

However, Instead of giving the nod to a pick, I am going to give the nod to Future Wax as they drafted the unbalanced rookie card of Ryan Braun, who became a more balanced threat and NL MVP. They have the best chemistry in the SOMBILLA. They also traded for oft injured Josh Hamilton (for 2009 3rd round pick Nelson Cruz) and won big as he is having another MVP season (Ed note, he was at least until recently).

Worst Pick: Alex Gordon was heading toward the worst pick, but he got out of the infield and out of his own head and put together a good season in 2011, which Jeff will get to use in the upcoming SOMBILLA season. The jury is still out as to what his final level of play will be. Fausto Carmona turned out to be older than MLB thought and really named Roberto Hernandez. He turned out to be a malcontent in the clubhouse and while we cannot fault Harold, Carmona/Hernandez has to be considered the worst pick of this exceptional first round.

Other: .Carlos Pena was a retread power pick that the Manatees turned (with Beltre) into Youk and Torii Hunter when he was slumping part-way through the season. Both sides made out in the deal in the long run and somehow the .500 Manatees got hot in the playoffs with good matchups and walked away with the Series that year.

Round 2:

1. Jed - Joakim Soria

12-6, 26 SV, 2.264 ERA, 105 K (99.3 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

2. Arnie - Heath Bell

5-2,  0 SV, 3.046 ERA, 90 K (85.7 IPS)

Still Owned

3. Eric - Peter Moylan

4-1, 1 SV, 4.39 ERA, 24 K (28.7 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

4. H -- Joba Chamberlain

0-1, 17 SV, 3.426 ERA, 45 K (39.4 IPS)

Still Owned

5. Jeff - Brandon Phillips

.200 / .251 / .280 / .531 (781 PA), 14 HR, 66 RBI, 31 SB

Still Owned

6. Tom - Hunter Pence

.290 / .315 / .541 / .856 (111 PA), 4 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB

Still Owned

7. Robin - Carlos Marmol

6-5, 8 SV, 2.528 ERA, 120 K (99.7 IPS)

Still Owned

8. RAT - Justin Upton


Still Owned

Best Pick: The typical scramble for the best relief arms available. Soria has just had the best years and even though he was cut this year after Tommy John surgery, I still have to give him the nod. Heath Bell could have taken it but he just imploded this year for Miami and seems to have turned out to be a product of Petco.

Worst Pick: Peter Moylan had one low IP year before Tommy John surgery ended his career with Eric’s team. He was a one-sided reliever who had potential but just could not put together a healthy year since. Justin Upton is a 1 who can hit for power and run, but has yet to put together a season worthy of a second round pick in the SOMBILLA. He is having a rough 2012, but one day he might put together a career as he is still very young. [Ed note: That’s what I keep hoping about his (older) brother too!]

Other: Joba Chamberlain looked to be a great pick here, but injuries and the mysteries of the Yankees conspired to make him only a postscript. Pence finally had a good year and will be the best Manatee hitter in a year that looks pretty grim.

Round 3:

1. Harold – Orlando Cabrera

.272 / .307 / .400 / .707 (205 PA), 5 HR, 21 RBI, 3 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

2. Eric - Hideki Okajima

1-0, 0 SV, 3.512 ERA, 37 K (41 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

3. Arnie - Rafael Perez

1-1, 2 SV, 2.942 ERA, 55 K (52 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

4. Jed - Manny Corpas

1-1, 1 SV, 1.688 ERA, 19 K (32 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

5. Jeff - George Sherrill

1-1,  0 SV, 3.853 ERA, 27 K (32.7 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

6. Tom - Yunel Escobar

.279 / .343 / .365 / .708 (747 PA), 16 HR, 84 RBI, 5 SB

Still Owned

7. Arnie - Jacoby Ellsbury

.291 / .317 / .317 / .634 (82 PA), 0 HR, 5 RBI, 4 SB

Still Owned

8. RAT - Phil Hughes

1-3,  0 SV, 4.673 ERA, 39 K (52 IPS)

Traded Still Owned

Best Pick: This was a tough call, but I will bow to the potential of Jacoby Ellsbury. He had a dominant real life season last year, hitting for power, running, and playing Gold Glove caliber defense. Arnie has not gotten the advantage of that card yet, but I have in my other league and it is. The only question I have with Jacoby is his ability to have at least 350 PA’s. A close second is Yunel Escobar who has supplied a solid performance as a 2 SS who has not missed many PA’s and will once again be the starting SS for the Manatees.

Worst Pick: No one was terrible, but I guess I have to pick someone. I will go with Cabrera as a short-termer who probably could have been drafted later in the draft.

Round 4:

1. Jed - Daisuke Matsuzaka


Kept for more than 1 year

2. Arnie - Mark Reynolds

.278 / .345 / .513 / .858 (409 PA), 22 HR, 68 RBI, 6 SB

Still Owned

3. Eric - Corey Hart


Kept for more than 1 year

4. Harold - Matt Capps

3-3, 0 SV, 3.176 ERA, 30 K (51 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

5. Jeff - Damaso Marte

0-3, 0 SV, 7.692 ERA, 13 K (11.7 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

6. Tom - Kelly Johnson

.238 / .344 / .411 / .755 (151 PA), 7 HR, 23 RBI, 2 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

7. Robin - C.J. Wilson

1-2, 0 SV, 5.294 ERA, 16 K (18.7 IPS)

Cut After One Year

8. RAT - Jarrod Saltalamacchia


Kept for more than 1 year

Best Pick: This was a strange round as few of these players have not been cut and three of them were claimed by other teams as part of our new waiver draft. CJ Wilson was cut immediately and then drafted another year by Jed who then traded him back to his original owner, Robin, after he had a big real life year (and she realized how cute he was). Mark Reynolds has to be the best pick as the only player still owned and for whatever reason has better SOMBILLA stats than real life stats.

Worst Pick: Dice-K edges out super catcher prospect Salty who never really got a chance to play for Wax even though he now has gotten a chance for the home town Red Sox. Dice-K never lived up to his hype and was just a disappointment. Corey Hart and his sunglasses was not a bad pick, he just could not crack the dominant lineup of the team whose name is ever in flux.

Other: Kelly Johnson is one of those intriguing left handed power bats at 2B but never seemed to hit up to his cards or his potential before the Manatees booted him and Jed picked him up from the scrap heap.

Round 5:

1. Harold - Joe Beimel

0-0, 0 SV, 1.084 ERA, 2 K (8.3 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

2. Eric - Geovany Soto

.269 / .361 / .445 / .806 (391 PA), 22 HR, 52 RBI, 0 SB

Still Owned

3. Arnie - Dustin Pedroia

.266 / .323 / .361 / .684 (844 PA), 15 HR, 92 RBI, 11 SB

Still Owned

4. Jed - Russ Springer

4-2, 1 SV, 2.854 ERA, 31 K (41 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

5. Jeff - Cameron Maybin


Still Owned

6. Tom - Cody Ross

.253 / .300 / .438 / .738 (80 PA), 3 HR, 10 RBI, 0 SB

Cut After One Year

7. Robin - Asdrubal Cabrera

.240 / .269 / .269 / .538 (26 PA), 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB

Still Owned

8. RAT - Aaron Hill


Still Owned

Best Pick: After a strange round, we end up with a stellar round. The best pick goes to the scrappy Red Sox 2nd bagger who has provided Gold Glove defense and both production and PA’s up the middle for North Dakota.

Worst Pick: I am going to go with Joe Beimel who was a one out pitcher who just did not have enough IPs to allow him out of the last position in this round. Aaron Hill really did have PA’s and was a 1 at least one of the years for Wax. Maybin was and is still very young and just starting to have the kind of real-life success that might translate into a SOMBILLA season or two.

Other: Geovanny Soto was essential and clutch for several Eric teams and probably could have grabbed best in the round honors if not for Pedroia’s solid performances. Asdrubal Cabrera has now put together 1 and a half good years that Robin will put to good use in the near future.

Round 6:

1. Jed - Jack Cust

.158 / .335 / .280 / .615 (200 PA), 9 HR, 17 RBI, 0 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

2. Arnie - Bobby Seay

0-1, 1 SV, 5.035 ERA, 14 K (14.3 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

3. Eric - Manny Delcarmen

1-2, 2 SV, 5.55 ERA, 31 K (32.7 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

4. Jed - Shane Victorino

.240 / .316 / .299 / .615 (421 PA), 8 HR, 34 RBI, 24 SB

Still Owned

5. Jed - Rick Ankiel

.283 / .315 / .604 / .919 (111 PA), 11 HR, 18 RBI, 0 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

6. Tom -Homer Bailey

1-0, 0 SV, 4.252 ERA, 14 K (12.7 IPS)

Still Owned

7. Robin - Edinson Volquez

5-7,  0 SV, 7.448 ERA, 85 K (87 IPS)

Still Owned

8. RAT - Travis Buck


Kept for more than 1 year

Best Pick: Jed had three picks this round so he should have the best pick and did with Victorino, who is looking forward to his walk year this year where he will make good coin in real life. He is a switch-hitting CF who has earned the 1 rating. Rick Ankiel has put up better numbers, but he was not and will not be the better player when all is said and done.

Worst Pick: I have to give the nod to Travis Buck because Randy never reported his stats.

Other: Volquez looked to be the steal of the draft, but Tommy John and inconsistency leaves him as a question that is yet to be answered. For some reason the Manatees keep hoping that Homer Bailey will put it together but the numbers are against him lasting much longer on the roster.

Round 7:

1. Harold - Ted Lilly

14-6, 0 SV, 4.585 ERA, 14 K (159 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

2. Eric - Chris Schroder

0-0, 1 SV, 3.186 ERA, 10 K (11.3 IPS)

Cut After One Year

3. Arnie - Daric Barton

.290 / .345 / .509 / .854 (116 PA), 6 HR, 23 RBI,  0 SB

Cut After One Year

4. Jed - Kelly Shoppach

.200 / .294 / .330 / .624 (466 PA), 15 HR, 38 RBI, 0 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

5. Jeff - Gil Mesche


Kept for more than 1 year

6. Tom - James Loney

.270 / .338 / .496 / .834 (139 PA), 9 HR, 23 RBI, 0 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

7. Robin - Eric O'Flaherty

2-4, 1 SV, 3.506 ERA, 24 K (33.3 IPS)

Still Owned (cut and redrafted)

8. RAT - Ryan Ludwick

.349 / .388 / .659 / 10.47 (232 PA), 15 HR, 41 RBI, 1 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

Best Pick: Late round flyers and fillers, but I have to give the best pick to RAT for Ryan Ludwick, who put together one great season a year after this draft. Shoppach had the most seasons, but his overall level of play was outshown by the MVP-level season that Ludwick put up. Lilly gave two seasons as an aging veteran back-end starter, including an 8-1 season the year of this draft.

Worst Pick: .You have to go with Meche who never threw a pitch in anger in the SOMBILLA. He showed potential but then just washed quickly out of professional baseball.

Round 8:

1. Jed - Tony Pena

1-0, 2 SV, 1.093 ERA, 19 K (24.7 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

2. Arnie - Jeremy Accardo

1-2, 0 SV, 3.863 ERA, 24 K (23.3 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

3. Eric - Raul Ibanez

.220 / .278 / .306 / .584 (108 PA), 2 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

4. Harold - Franklin Gutierrez

.171 / .247 / .195 / .442 (77 PA), 1 HR, 1 RBI, 0 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

5. Jeff - Troy Percival

0-2, 3 SV, 3.750 ERA, 12 K (12 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year

6. Tom - Billy Butler

.337 / .400 / .443 / .843 (210 PA), 4 HR, 25 RBI, 0 SB

Still Owned

7. Robin - Dustin McGowan

2-4, 0 SV, 7.109 ERA, 57 K (63.3 IPS)

Cut After One Year

8. RAT - Ubaldo Jimenez

6-7, 0 SV, 5.936 ERA, 92 K (94 IPS)

Still Owned

Best Pick: .Two of these players were AL All Stars this year and neither can play defense. Billy Butler takes "best pick" honors this round as the only player still owned and will probably even play in the upcoming season for the Manatees. Raul Ibanez has never put up a good SOMBILLA season, being used primarily as a lefty bench bat who never seemed to hit enough for Eric to use consistently.

Worst Pick: The only player to be cut immediately was D-Mac after a disappointing rookie SOMBILLA season. Toronto gave him a long-term contract this year and he then immediately got injured which was pretty much his usual status throughout his career – thus making him a typical Bay City pitcher.

Other: Ubaldo had that one good card, but he has not been able to put together another season beyond that one even though he has escaped Coors Field.

Round 9-13:

1. Harold - Brian Wolfe


Cut After One Year

2. Eric - Jason Werth

.244 / .337 / .345 / .682 (510 PA), 15 HR, 52 RBI, 7 SB

Still Owned

3. Arnie - J.R. Towles

.250 / .400 / .533 / .933 (15 PA), 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

4. Jed - Kurt Suzuki

.500 / .667 / .333 / 1 (3 PA), 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

5. Jeff -Omar Vizquel

.500 / .700 / .600 / 1.3 (10 PA), 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

6. Tom - Kevin Correia

0-0, 0 SV, 5.152 ERA, 20 K (29.7 IPS)

Cut After One Year

7. Robin - Jair Jurrjens

2-9, 0 SV, 5.490 ERA, 64 K (100 IPS)

Still Owned

8. RAT - Jeremy Guthrie

10-1, 0 SV, 2.749 ERA, 43 K (75.3 IPS)

Kept for more than 1 year




1. Jed - Joey Votto

.326 / .402 / .545 / .947 (418 PA), 26 HR, 75 RBI, 5 SB

Still Owned

2. Arnie - Ryan Spillborghs

.287 / .385 / .346 / .731 (182 PA), 2 HR, 26 RBI, 1 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

3. Eric - Jack Hannahan


Cut After One Year

4. Harold - Felix Pie


Kept for more than 1 year

5. Jeff -Eric Byrnes

.188 / .250 / .356 / .606 (104 PA), 3 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB

Cut After One Year

6. Tom - Reggie Willits

.280 / .427 / .262 / .689 (103 PA), 0 HR, 5 RBI, 8 SB

Cut After One Year

7. Robin - Miguel Montero

.195 / .244 / .329 / .573 (82 PA), 3 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB

Still Owned

8. RAT - Shawn Hill


Cut After One Year




1. Harold - Josh Phelps

.357 / .471 / .588 / 1.059 (34 PA), 2 HR, 13 RBI, 0 SB

Cut After One Year

2. Eric - Jeff Keppinger

.185 / .254 / .239 / .493 (71 PA), 1 HR, 6 RBI,0  SB

Kept for more than 1 year

3. Jed - Melky Cabrera

.233 / .304 / .428 / .732 (411 PA), 22 HR, 63 RBI, 2 SB

Cut After One Year?

4. Jeff - Steve Pearce

.158 / .200 / .150 / .350 (20 PA), 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

5. Tom - Ryan Church

.252 / .344 / .352 / .696 (122 PA), 2 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB

Kept for more than 1 year

6. RAT - Akinori Iwamura

.214 / .353 / .206 / .559 (34 PA), 0 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB

Kept for more than 1 year




1. Eric - Brian Bannister


Cut After One Year

2. Harold - John McDonald

.250 / .250 / .250/ .5 (8 PA), 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB

Cut After One Year

3. Tom - Norris Hopper

.360 / .385 / .423 / .808 (26 PA), 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB

Cut After One Year

4. RAT - Garrett Anderson


Cut After One Year




1. Harold - Lee Gardner

2-3, 0 SV, 4.439 ERA, 13 K (22.3 IPS)

Cut After One Year

Best Pick: .This was easy as the best hitter in MLB (and last year’s unanimous SOMBILLA MVP) was picked up in the tenth round by Jed in Joey Votto. I wish I could say that I was not looking to draft a 1B hitter type, but I drafted two in earlier rounds and just missed on the truly awesome Votto.

Worst Pick: You really cannot make a bad pick in these rounds.

Other: Jason Werth has a large number of mediocre SOMBILLA at bats, but he has a long term contract and has flashed solid real-life play so he shows potential for the future. Montero is a solid left-handed catcher who has a future in the SOMBILLA for Bay City. Melky Cabrera was on the next year’s cut list but played that year for Jed so there must have been a correction done later. Of course, Jed eventually did cut him in time for him to get redrafted by Eric, have a good season and then become a starting All Star for the NL this year (MVP of the All Star Game). Jurrjens looked like he was on the way to being a quality starter, but after a tough start to 2012 MLB is questioning his future.

2007 Card Set Results:

Team

Stats

Arnie

.310 / .366 / .473 / .839 (947 PA), 32 HR, 153 RBI, 5 SB

Eric

.226 / .294 / .310 / .604 (252 PA), 5 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB

Harold

.282 / .331 / .418 / .749 (251 PA), 7 HR, 36 RBI, 3 SB

Jeff

.196 / .244 / .332 / .576 (352 PA), 12 HR, 38 RBI, 13 SB

Jed

.237 / .332 / .395 / .727 (689 PA), 33 HR, 86 RBI, 12 SB

Robin

 

TSK

.264 / .351 / .423 / .774 (1160 PA), 45 HR, 142 RBI, 12 SB

Wax

 

Team

Stats

Arnie

4-3, 2 SV, 3.673 ERA, 111 K (98 IPS)

Eric

6-7, 2 SV, 4.296 ERA, 105 K (125.7 IPS)

Harold

19-10, 17 SV, 3.94 ERA, 174 K (262.7 IPS)

Jeff

0-5, 3 SV, 4.058 ERA, 37 K (37.7 IPS)

Jed

8-6, 13 SV, 1.91 ERA, 87 K (113.1 IPS)

Robin

11-10, 5 SV, 4.794 ERA, 163 K (172.7 IPS)

TSK

0-0,  SV, 5.152 ERA, 20 K (29.7 IPS)

Wax

 

Wax just did not report this season after his World Series hangover, but it was strange that Robin had no offensive contributors in the first year. She was too busy drafting a pitching staff? Harold had the best pitching first year with the Manatees and North Dakota drafting offensive contributions.

Total Reported SOMBILLA Statistics:

Team

Stats

Arnie

.286 / .348 / .437 / .785 (2809 PA), 94 HR, 390 RBI, 33 SB

Eric

.246 / .334 / .370 / .704 (18 PA), 40 HR, 117 RBI, 7 SB

Harold

.256 / .309 / .367 / .676 (324 PA), 8 HR, 37 RBI, 3 SB

Jeff

.203 / .258 / .293 / .551 (928 PA), 18 HR, 82 RBI, 34 SB

Jed

.243 / .329 / .398 / .727 (2030 PA), 91 HR, 248 RBI, 31 SB

Robin

.206 / .250 / .315 / .565 (108 PA), 3 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB

TSK

.265 / .350 / .405 / .755 (2270 PA), 85 HR, 289 RBI, 18 SB

Wax

.316 / .359 / .596 / .955 (418 PA), 27 HR, 82 RBI, 3 SB

Team

Stats

Arnie

7-6, 3 SV, 3.286 ERA, 183 K (175.3 IPS)

Eric

28-18, 4 SV, 4.30 ERA, 499 K (473 IPS)

Harold

27-18, 17 SV, 3.984 ERA, 255 K (384 IPS)

Jeff

1-6, 3 SV, 4.628 ERA, 52 K (56.4 IPS)

Jed

18-9, 30 SV, 2.146 ERA, 174 K (197 IPS)

Robin

23-38, 9 SV, 5.16 ERA, 473 K (505.67 IPS)

TSK

1-0, 0 SV, 4.882 ERA, 34 K (42.4 IPS)

Wax

17-11, 0 SV, 4.555 ERA, 174 K (221.3 IPS)

Facts about the Draft: Robin seemed to decide that this draft was a bad draft since she choose to draft only 9 players, (or else she decided that she liked her team more than the draft). Jeff drafted only 1 and everyone else drafted 12. It was a solid draft for contributing in the first year and 32 of the players drafted were still owned (5 years later) at the time of this analysis. A surprisingly small number of the players drafted were cut in the first year at 18 versus 25 and 28 respectively after the two previous drafts; 16 players from the first 3 rounds are still owned, and strangely 5 of the 5th round picks are still around.

Best Draft:  This was a draft that had good players drafted by everyone. However, Arnie traded up and worked hard and put together the best draft. He drafted for that year and the future at once. North Dakota picked up big contributors Magglio Ordonez, Josh Hamilton, Heath Bell, Rafael Perez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mark Reynolds, and Dustin Pedroia. His draft dropped off late with Bobby Seay, Barton, Accardo, Towles and Spillborghs.

Worst Draft: Harold had a tough draft. He picked up so-called Fausto Carmona #1 and just could not recover. His draft for the long term relied on Carmona and Joba to be his standard bearers as the rest of the draft was all about the short term. His complete draft was Fausto Carmona, Joba Chamberlain, Orlando Cabrera, Matt Capps, Joe Beimel, Ted Lilly, Franklin Gutierrez, Brian Wolfe, Felix Pie, Josh Phelps, John McDonald, and Lee Gardner.

-------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMER STUDY NO. 4 – THE WAY WE WERE

        1. Revisiting the SOMBILLA Trading and Loan Scandal

        The website describes Game 6 of the 1996 SOMBILLA World Series:

        Randy can't decide between Pedro Martinez and Dennis Martinez to start the 6th game, and finally chooses Dennis Martinez. Two years earlier, in '93-94, North Dakota was battling Future Wax for first place and acquired Roger Clemens at the trading deadline from Eric for 2 first round picks (after attempting to acquire him via loan, precipitating the Trading and Loan Scandal). Upon discovery of the Clemens trade, Andrew called Robin, the North Dakota manager's wife, to pursue a trade. At the time of receipt of Andrew's call, Robin had played 38 games, 2 fewer than the trading limit. Two nights before, a scheduled 4-game series with Dave that would have put Robin over the trading deadline was postponed when Dave simply forgot to show up, luckily for Future Wax. Dennis Martinez was Robin's best pitcher that year, and one of the best starters in the league. Robin traded Dennis Martinez (and a 6th round pick) to her husband's nemesis, Andrew, for a second round pick (which became Sean Berry). Martinez went on to win two games against North Dakota in the World Series, including a 2-1, 5-hitter against Saberhagen in a crucial Game 5 showdown. For the two years after that, the trading of Martinez to Future Wax and Martinez's World Series success against North Dakota caused a small amount of marital friction.

        After beating D. Martinez to win its first World Series, the North Dakota manager absolved the Bay City manager of all issues surrounding the trade two years prior.

        But what really happened in 1994? The original documents surrounding the Trading and Loan Scandal existed only in our memories (and in my attic) until now, thanks to the existence of our new scanner. And now, transport yourself back to February 1994, before the Internet, when newsletters were printed and handed out (or mailed) weekly to the league and if you wanted to contact someone you had to call them on their land line.

        From the February 3, 1994 SOMBILLA Newsletter:


        Two weeks later, the February 2, 1994 newsletter had the following headline:

        Inside:

        Eric packs it in;

        Commissioner leveled by blast from west coast.


        Tsuan’s letter was published in its entirety, annotated by me so I could rebut his letter point by point:

        My point by point rebuttal (was it snide?):


        Good times, good times.




        HOW IS YOUR TEAM DOING?

        Here is our first unscientific look ahead to the 2012 cards (due out in January).

        <>
        THE 2012 SOMBILLA/FOX SPORTS ALL-STAR COUNT
        <><>
        RAT (11) – Braun, Bruce, Freese, Hamels, Hamilton, Kemp, Kershaw, McCutchen, Ruiz, Stanton, Uggla

                                        Eric (10) – Bourn, Me. Cabrera, Fielder, G. Gonzalez, C. Jones, Konerko, Lincecum, Y. Molina, Verlander, Weaver

                                        Harold (9) – Cano, Desmond, Dunn, A. Jones, Napoli, Sale, Strasburg, Street, Wright

                                        Jed (8) – Bautista, Beltre, Hanrahan, F. Hernandez, Holliday, Mauer, Price, Votto,

                                       Arnie (8) – Altuve, Beltran, S. Castro, Kimbrel, Ortiz, Peavy, C. Perez, Wieters

                                       Tom (8) – Butler, Cain, Dickey, Furcal, Kinsler, Papelbon, Sabathia, Trout

                                       Robin (7) – A. Cabrera, Mi. Cabrera, Granderson, Jeter, Posey, Sandoval, CJ Wilson

                                       Jeff (3) – Andrus, Chapman, C. Gonzalez

SOMBILLA Opening Day: Sunday, November 4!



Ballparks

Singles

Homers

Arizona

1-14

1-11

Atlanta

L 1-5

R 1-8

1-8

Chicago (NL)

1-11

L 1-12

R 1-9

Cincinnati

L 1-3

R 1-9

L 1-11

R 1-17

Colorado

1-19

1-16

Florida

1-8

1-8

Houston

L 1-1

R 1-4

1-12

Los Angeles

1-5

L 1-1

R 1-7

Milwaukee

1-6

1-13

New York (NL)

1-5

L 1-7

R 1-4

Philadelphia

1-7

1-1

Pittsburgh

1-1

1-6

St. Louis

1-6

L 1-5

R 1-2

San Diego

1

L 1

R 1-5

San Francisco

1-9

L 1

R 1-7

Washington

1-8

1-1

Baltimore

L 1-14

R 1-8

1-13

Boston

L 1-14

R 1-17

L 1-3

R 1-8

Chicago (AL)

1-3

L 1-15

R 1-18

Cleveland

1-6

L 1-11

R 1-2

Detroit

1-1

1-8

Kansas City

1-15

L 1

R 1-4

Los Angeles

1-5

1-7

Minnesota

1-11

1-2

New Yuck (AL)

1-7

L 1-19

R 1-16

Oakland

1-5

1-4

Seattle

L 1-4

R 1

L 1-9

R 1-3

Tampa Bay

1-4

1-7

Texas

1-13

1-16

Toronto

1-6

1-13